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January 06, 2007Iran's NukesSimon at Classical Values notes that Iran is apparently facing an energy crunch as their natural gas deliveries to Turkey have dropped off markedly. He correctly notes that this problem, as well as Iran's inability to meet its OPEC quota over the past 18 months, means that Iran is enduring some painful economic times. What he doesn't note, however, is that if this is the case, it bolster's Iran's argument for nuclear power development.Iran is taking a significant economic hit by cutting natural gas delivery to foreign buyers. Given that exports of oil and natural gas are two of Iran's primary industries, when they have to stop selling natural gas to provide for domestic consumption, that's a big deal for their economy. Finding ways to increase their exports, then, is a logical move for the Iranian government, and it places their claims that they're pursuing nuclear power for peaceful uses in a different light. I don't recall seeing any sites that talked about Iran's pursuit of nuclear power take note of the fact they really could use nuclear power to bolster their export industry, although it is certainly possible I simply missed it. I do recall seeing many people ask why Iran would need nuclear power given their oil and gas reserves, however, and this article gives us a pretty good answer. This is not to say that Iran is necessarily being wholly truthful regarding its pursuit of nuclear power. Given the international situation and Iran's relationship with the United States, pursuit of weapons technology is a logical goal for the regime, as only with nuclear weapons can they be certain the United States will not strike at them. But it seems much clearer now that Iran needs nuclear power, even without nuclear weapons, to bolster its economy. This matters, because it means that we cannot simply assume that by dealing with Iran's concerns over external intervention we will eliminate Iran's pursuit of nuclear power. Any solution to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons will have to include not only security guarantees, but assistance with a peaceful nuclear power capability (something that carries with it other problems, as a thriving domestic nuclear industry will give Iran more money to spend on terrorism and other destabilizing activities as well as a convenient means of hiding further pursuit of nuclear weapons). I tend to believe that, in the long term, it will be impossible to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This article suggests that it will be even more difficult than I had originally imagined, because Iran has multiple reasons to continue its pursuit of nuclear technology, meaning it will be that much more difficult to answer all of their concerns. powered by performancing firefox Posted at 08:57 AM · International Relations • · Politics • · War · Comments (3) · TrackBack (0)
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