February 16, 2007

Goodbye, Keith, and Thanks

Former Red Sox closer and the man who was on the mound for the Red Sox' first World Championship in 86 years Keith Foulke has hung up his spikes. I suspect that a large reason he has been hurting the past two seasons is because he gave the Red Sox everything he had in the 2004 postseason. Whether or not that's the case, I will remember him catching Edgar Renteria's groundout to close out the 2004 world classic. Thanks for your hard work, Keith, and good luck with life beyond baseball.

Update: My report on game four, and my reaction the Sox' World Championship.

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January 10, 2007

Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Everyone lies, Michael. The innocent lie because they don't want to be blamed for something they didn't do, and the guilty lie because they don't have any other choice.

Commander Jeffrey Sinclair, Babylon 5

The fifth amendment to the Constitution is pretty important. It protects all of us from being forced to possibly incriminate ourselves should we find ourselves accused of a crime. You do hear it argued from time to time that, if you don't have anything to hide, why fear testifying, but that's a fool's game. First of all, just because you are innocent, it doesn't mean you don't have anything to hide. We all have things we'd rather keep private (well, reviewing some reality TV shows, maybe some of us don't), and we should not be required to lose that privacy simply because we've been accused of a crime. Second, one of the best things about our legal system is the supposition of innocence: we can't send someone to prison (or worse) unless we can prove they're guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. While that means that some of the guilty get off, it also serves as an important (although eroding) check on the power of the state. Without the supposition of innocence, the government can imprison anyone it wants simply by accusing them. (See Jose Padilla for exhibit A of this shameful behavior.)

Of course, the problem with the fifth amendment is that it goes against human nature. If someone takes the fifth, the average person assumes they are doing so because they are, in fact, guilty. Which is silly when you think about it, since in most cases the crime the person is accused with is heinous enough that risking perjury charges isn't generally a major concern. Nonetheless, taking the fifth is generally regarding as equivalent to admitting one's guilt, which is unfortunate. For the reasons I listed above, people ought to be able to protect their privacy without being assumed to be criminals.

Today's exhibit is Mark McGwire, who fell well short of election to the Hall of Fame yesterday in large part because it is assumed that he used performance-enhancing drugs during his career. And Steve Buckley at the Boston Herald is tickled pink about that, citing McGwire's testimony before Congress as proof of the slugger's guilt. Buckley calls McGwire's response, "I'm not here to talk about the past," a 'cheap lawyer's trick,' as if utilizing the rights our ancestors fought and died for 200+ years ago is somehow sleazy.

I don't know if Mark McGwire used steroids during his career. If I had to bet money on it, I'd bet that he did. But I can't prove it, and while McGwire is not actually on trial, I see no reason why the presumption of innocence should not apply in his case as well, if only to remind people of the principle and why it matters. I don't care if McGwire goes into the HoF or not, but I care a great deal about retaining (and in many cases) reinstating the rights laid out in the Bill of Rights (including those troublesome ninth and tenth amendments).

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January 09, 2007

Hall of Fame 2007

Congratulations to Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr., the two newest members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. They were obvious and deserving selections, and they'll do the Hall proud (although Gwynn represents, by far, the most overrated HoF player archetype: high-average singles hitters). Neither managed to squeak past Tom Seaver for highest percentage ever, but both did quite well with 97.6 and 98.5% of the votes respectively.

Remaining bridesmaids for yet another year were Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven, and Jim Rice, all of whom will once again have to wait until next year, thanks in large part to (quite frankly) a vast number of idiots who make up a sizeable fraction of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Not that I'm overly upset over most of the vote; Gossage clearly deserves to be there, but Blyleven and Rice are on the bubble. What fascinates me are the morons who won't vote for anyone on the first ballot (news flash: nobody's plaque mentions how they ended up in the Hall) or who votes for only one outfielder/pitcher/etc. each year. Either someone is a Hall of Fame player, or they're not, and the silly games that go on with players having to agonize year after year because too many writers don't take the time to really work on their ballot. (To be fair, some writers do a very good job, but unfortunately there's enough chaff to ruin the wheat.)

Really interesting: Jim Rice remains a decent candidate, albeit the clock will probably run out on him before he gets in, but Albert Belle garnered only 19 votes and is off the ballot. When it comes to writers not doing research, that's a pretty strong indicator. Belle put up numbers that are very similar to Rice's, and did it faster than Rice. Even adjusting for the eras in which they played, I'd love to know how 327 voters justified Rice but not Belle.

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December 06, 2006

Some Good News

Boston pitcher Jon Lester, who went down late this season with cancer, has been pronounced cancer-free by his doctors. Naturally, they're going to need to keep a close eye on him for the rest of his life, but this is terrific news for a young guy who has his whole life in front of him. Here's hoping he's firmly ensconced in the starting rotation next year.

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October 07, 2006

Buck O'Neil, 1911-2006

I think Reggie Jackson said it best: "I'm not sad for him. He had a long, full life and I hope I'm as lucky, but I'm sad for us." If you followed baseball, you knew Buck O'Neil, for he was a giant in the sport. No, he wasn't one of the all-time great sluggers like Ruth or Gibson, nor a tremendous pitcher like Paige or Johnson. But he saw them all, and more in his 94 years on the planet.

O'Neil was a first baseman for the Kansas City Monarchs. Yes, those Monarchs...the ones whose stars included a pitcher named Satchel Paige and a young shortstop named Jackie Robinson. Buck played with them both, and many other stars, during his career in the Negro Leagues. He then followed that up by breaking another barrier: O'Neil was the first black man to serve as a coach in the major leagues. That might not sound like much, but O'Neil was the first black hired by a ball club not for his brawn, but for his brain. (Although that is a simplification; really good baseball players need more than physical tools.)

But O'Neil really hit the big time with Ken Burns' documentary, Baseball. O'Neil's encyclopedic knowledge of the sport and his awe-inspiring ability to tell a story made him, as he put it, 'an overnight sensation at age 82.' With that experience establishing him as a more well-known spokesman for baseball, O'Neil spent the next twelve years criss-crossing the country thrilling audiences with his stories of ballplayers most of us know only as lines of text in a statistics book or grainy footage on a newsreel. O'Neil told stories about who they were and what they did, bringing the past to life as few can.

I had the good fortune to see O'Neil in Colorado Springs several years ago. I don't know if I've ever met anyone who was so full of life as he was; it was a privilege having a chance to listen to him and even to ask him a few questions. We are all a little poorer today.

Update: The Negro Leagues Museum in Kansas City is holding a fund raiser for the John "Buck" O'Neil Education and Research Center. This expansion to the Negro Leagues Museum will allow researchers to delve into every aspect of the Negro Leagues, making it a huge boon for baseball scholars and historians alike. For those interested in baseball and American history (and who have money burning a hole in their pocket), it sounds like a pretty good cause.

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October 06, 2006

ALDS Twists

Games played thus far in the division series: ten.

Games won by teams I picked to win their series: one.

For those readers who do like to gamble, I recommend you watch my picks for the LCS very carefully.

On the plus side, it's been an interesting postseason already, what with Oakland finally breaking a nine-game streak of futility and the Mets turning one of the most improbable double-plays in history. And I'll cheerfully admit how wrong I was in my predictions if one of the ones that proves to be wrong is the Yankees going all the way.

Yes, I'm petty that way.

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October 04, 2006

Short Series

I'd just like to thank the playoff teams for working so hard to queer my predictions. After five games, only one team I predicted to win its series has won even one game. And to take this opportunity to point out that anyone can win a short series, and that my predictions should not be used by anyone planning to place bets on the games, for your own safety (and mine).

And, naturally, the one team that did win? The @$%$%@ Yankees. Typical.

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October 03, 2006

Playoff Watch 2006

It's that time of year again. I hate this time of year in one sense, since there's a lot less baseball available and we're a long ways from the good times of Spring Training and beyond, but there's always excitement in the playoffs. Already we see that Oakland has stunned Minnesota with a 3-2 victory over Twins ace and probably Cy Young winner Johan Santana to take a 1-0 lead in that series, so it promises to be an interesting postseason.

In the first round, I see things working out as follows:
I thought Minnesota would defeat Oakland, and while I may look bad for saying so after their ace goes down, I'm sticking with that. Minnesota in five.
Look for St. Louis' repreive on Sunday to be short-lived. The Padres should make short work of their fellow clergymen, winning in four games.
Dodgers-Mets should be a fun one. The Dodgers finished very strong, and it's always good to hit the playoffs playing your best ball of the year. Look for LA to knock the Mets out in five games.
And the Yankees will take out Detroit in four, as Detroit's magical five months in 2006 will turn to bitter ashes in the face of New York's assemblage of talent.

In the League Championship Series, things should get interesting.
The Padres and Dodgers finished the year tied, although the Padres won the season series and therefore get home field advantage. The Padres played hard through the last day of the season to get home field advantage, while the Dodgers chose to be happy with a playoff berth and rested a little more at the end. This series should show which manager was the wiser. Past history has me leaning strongly against any interpretation of Grady Little as wise, so I expect San Diego will take this series in six.
In the AL, meanwhile, I expect Oakland to see their hopes ended by the Yankees yet again, also in six games. New York's iffy pitching will still be enough when backed by their awesome hitting.

So the World Series will be a rematch of 1998. The good news for Padres fans is, they'll probably win a game or two this time. But, much as I hate to say it, I expect to see the Yankees on top at the end of this Series, therefore ending Boston's brief reign of having a shorter championship drought than New York.

Still, it was fun while it lasted.

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September 29, 2006

Pedro Goes Down

I hated to see Pedro Martinez leave Boston, particularly in the wake of Boston's 2004 World Series championship. But when the Mets offered a guaranteed fourth year, I thought that Theo Epstein was right to let Pedro go, and events thus far have proven me right, particularly in light of the announcement he cannot play for the Mets in this year's playoffs, reducing the Mets from probable pennant-winners to probable also-rans.

Since going to the Mets, Pedro has put up the following lines:
2004: 15-8, 2.82 ERA, 217 IP
2005: 9-8, 4.48 ERA, 132.2 IP

Ironically, had he been able to flip those lines, the Mets would be much better off, as last year he probably could have pitched in the playoffs but didn't have to because the Mets didn't make it. Now the Mets will be without their biggest gun for the postseason, and who knows what Pedro will be able to do next year. He's an amazing pitcher when he's healthy, and as Red Sox fans remember from 1999, even when he's hurt he's pretty damn amazing. But he's injury-prone and getting older, so these kinds of injuries are only likely to get worse over the next two years of his contract.

Still, I take no pleasure in being proved right. Pedro was a great guy to have on our team for the seven years he spent in Boston, and I'm grateful for every start he made for us. I would have been very happy to see him go on to more success with the Mets, and I still wouldn't mind seeing the Mets somehow win the Series this year so he can earn a second ring. One of the most painful things about baseball is that it gives us an ugly reminder of our slow trek to the reaper, as a man who was one of the greatest pitchers of his age, if not of all time, slowly succumbs to the indignities of age.

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September 18, 2006

Small Victories

Yes, it's not much, but at least we didn't have to endure being the guests at yet another Yankees' AL East clinching ceremony. The Red Sox finally found a team they can play well against in the Yankees, taking three of four over the weekend. We even managed to end Derek Jeter's hitting streak, a petty little victory I'll take in my desperate desire to have something pleasant to cling to at this point in a very sad season. (Although I'll point out that a lousy baseball season still beats any other sport I'm aware of.) The Yankees didn't have much to play for, of course, as only divine intervention will prevent them from winning the AL East for the ninth year in a row, but I suspect that Joe Torre's boys don't get to sit back and get comfortable even when sitting in the catbird seat as they are now, and it's not like the Red Sox ran out a great lineup either, with the starting pitchers being this illustrious foursome: Josh Beckett (15-10, 5.02), Tim Wakefield (7-9, 4.19), Kyle Snyder (4-4, 6.28) and Kevin Jarvis (0-2 , 5.17). Nothing against them all; they actually acquited themselves quite well, but that's not exactly the rotation the Red Sox planned to have at this point in 2006, and it highlights the reason the Sox will be watching the playoffs on television in October.

I should note, however, that Big Papi should stick to keeping his mouth shut about the MVP award and accept the fact he's never going to win it. As a DH, he simply has to put up stats that are far beyond anyone else in contention, and he's got to do it with a contending team. The Red Sox are not likely to be in contention next year (although much could change between now and then), and while Papi's a tremendous hitter, the fact is he's not even the best hitter on his own team. That Ramirez guy may not have quite such eye-popping stats, but comparing him to Papi, he comes away looking pretty good.

Papi: .283/.405/.625, 49 HR, 129 RBI.
Manny: .318/.436/.612, 34 HR, 101 RBI.

Papi has a little more power, but the RBI difference comes primarily because Ramirez bats after Papi and therefore loses a lot of opportunities to Papi, and Manny gets on base more often. It's close, but Manny has a slight edge, especially when you consider that a pitcher facing Papi knows that he has to face Manny next, while a pitcher facing Manny knows he has to face Mike Lowell (.283/.341/.465, 17 HR, 70 RBI) next. That takes a bit of the pressure off.

Now the more interesting question is, will Minnesota be able to come all the way back against the Tigers? I would like to see them do so, but they play Boston next, so I certainly want them to lose those games, and they need just about every game if they're to catch Detroit. It's about the last race for the playoffs, so you have to hope it stays close to make the last few weeks of the regular season interesting. Then the question will be, can anyone beat New York in the ALCS? Because if not, the Yankees' drought is coming to an end in 2006, and our long national nightmare will at long last be over.

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August 30, 2006

Red Sox 2007

Yes, I realize I've been something of a ghost of late. My apologies; between having to play acting battalion commander for ten days, finishing up a course in my MBA program, and preparing for the transfer of responsibility for our mission here at Fort Riley to the 1st Infantry Division, it's been hectic of late. On the plus side, tomorrow I get to go home to enjoy Labor Day with my wife. So life is good.

Although it would be a lot better if the Sox hadn't forgotten that we play 162 games these days, and not 122. I think it's safe to say that the bloom is off Theo's rose at this point, as the 2004 championship is looking a lot like a fluke rather than a true expression of the abilities of Epstein and Francona. I'm still of the opinion that the Sox ought to dump Terry; no, this year's disaster would have happened with or without him, but that doesn't change the fact he's a mediocre manager. But Boston's woes go well beyond him.

So, since we're in 'wait 'til next year mode,' what do we need for next year? Quite a bit. Pitching-wise, we have three starters we can count on next year: Schilling, Beckett, and Lester. Wakefield may come back as well, so that would round out the rotation to four, although Schilling and Wakefield are both pretty good bets to go down to injury, given their age. Clement may be back, but given the production he's given us the last two years, I'm not sure anyone really wants to see him back in a Boston uniform. Still, he's under contract, so the Sox could have a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield and Clement next year. That's not confidence-inspiring. It would help a lot if they went with Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, Wakefield. Yes, it means we have to find a closer, but Papelbon isn't Mariano Rivera, so the Sox may as well put someone else on the back end and get 200+ innings out of that arm. Then they just need to find a closer and probably two other good arms to go with Foulke, Delcarmen and Hansen.

Hitting-wise, the Sox obviously need some work. Right now they look like this: Varitek and Mirabelli behind the plate, Youklis, Loretta and Lowell around the diamond, and Ramirez, Crisp and Pena in the outfield. That's not good. At a minimum, we need a new shortstop (although I'd be happy to keep Gonzalez for his glove if we can get a few bigger hitters elsewhere. Varitek isn't the Tek of old, and Mirabelli's best years are behind him as well, so the Sox need to find a good catcher they can start training to take over the position. Get him early and have him catch Wakefield every minute he can spare, but don't keep Mirabelli around just because he can catch Wake. The Bard deal was a disaster for the Sox (imagine if they still had Cla Meredith in their bullpen); they need to find a good backup catcher and deal with whatever troubles he may have with Wake. The Sox also need a new third baseman; Lowell has been better than could be expected, but he's not getting any younger and the Sox desperately need to. Youkilis should be the solution at first for some time to come, and adding Pedroia to the mix as second should put the Sox in a good position for the future. In the outfield, I think the Sox are probably going to have to let Trot go; I hate to say that, but while he's a terrific player when he's healthy, he hasn't been healthy for at least three years. Unless he's willing to sign cheap, the Sox need to see if Pena can handle being an every day right fielder.

The more I look at the Sox, the less I think of Epstein. Supposedly the Sox are built for the future, but I don't see them being much better next year than they are this year. I think the Yankees' stranglehold on the AL East is going to last a lot longer than we'd like to think.

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August 11, 2006

Fire Francona

I have never been a fan of Terry Francona. Yes, I know he managed the Red Sox to their first World Series Championship since 1918, but I'm of the opinion they did that despite him, not because of him. And last night's odious performance is just one more example of the kind of dismal managing we endure under Francona.

The Sox came into last night in trouble. They'd dropped four of the first five games on their road trip and had lost the first two games of a three game series against woeful Kansas City. They needed a win badly. But their ace was on the mound, and after seven innings Schilling's arm and Wily Mo Pena's bat had staked the Red Sox to a 4-2 lead. Schilling had only thrown 89 pitches to that point, so I had no issue with Francona sending him back out to the mound. But as soon as he gave up the first double, Francona should have yanked him. Certainly when the tying run was on base Francona should have gone to the bullpen. And to leave Schilling out there to take the loss was, quite simply, unforgivable. With two innings to play and a two-run lead, there was no reason at all to leave Schilling out there in a game the Red Sox simply had to win. Yet, somehow, Francona pulled it off.

It's pretty clear at this point that the Sox are in 'wait til next year' mode. The loss of Tek and Trot, plus the psychological issue of failing to pick up any help at the trade deadline appear to have combined to take the wind out of their sails. If Jon Lester, Craig Hansen, and Manny Delcarmen live up to their potential, that will be survivable. It will be painful to miss the playoffs this year, but it happens. But if we're going to focus on next year, then we need to start by looking for a manager capable of making the right moves. Let's dump Francona overboard and find ourselves a manager who can actually be a net benefit to this team.

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June 27, 2006

Gammons in Surgery

Peter Gammons, the renowned baseball reporter, has suffered an aneurysm and is undergoing surgery in a Boston hospital. Here's hoping the damage is not irreparable, as Gammons is a solid asset in the baseball world thanks to his superlative sources and good reporting.

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The Ghosts of '86

The Boston Red Sox are (finally) planning to celebrate the accomplishments of the 1986 Red Sox. Best known for one unfortunate error (that wouldn't have made a big difference anyhow, since Stanley had already allowed the tying run to score, but never mind that), the '86 Red Sox brought a lot of joy and life into Boston baseball and arguably set the stage for the 'Red Sox nation' that lived and died (and celebrated) with the boys of 2004.

Yes, we lost in 1986. Yes, it was painful to lose after being one strike away. But it's nice to see we're finally going to recognize all that the 1986 team did accomplish.

On a side note, if anyone boos Pedro tomorrow, they should be vigorously beaten about the head and shoulders.

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May 26, 2006

Time for a Change

What's the difference between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers? Obviously they're separated by 3.5 and 5 games in the standings respectively, but why? (Duh...the Red Sox aren't as good. Go to the head of the class.) More precisely, are there any obvious reasons why the Red Sox can't seem to get any separation between themselves and the rest of the AL East? One springs immediately to mind to anyone following the Red Sox closely, I'll bet: the starting rotation.

Boston's top three starters match up against any in the American League. Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield have combined for 20 quality starts in 30 starts to date. That is one more than the White Sox' top three of Buehrle, Garcia and Contreras and as many as the Tigers' Verlander, Bonderman and Rogers. The problem is that for Boston, that's about their only source of quality starts: in the fifteen games not started by the Red Sox front three, they have three quality starts. Detroit has gotten ten quality starts in 18 games not started by their top three. Chicago has ten quality starts in 20 games not started by their top three. That's a huge difference, and it probably accounts for a sizable fraction of the difference in the teams.

So where do we look to fix this discrepancy? Granted, the Red Sox have been hurt by the loss of David Wells, who has started only one best-forgotten game thus far in 2006, and Lenny DiNardo, his replacement, has been minimally effective at best. But there's one other slot in the Boston rotation that has been healthy all year; he just hasn't pitched like it. Yes, Matt Clement, Theo Epstein's replacement for Derek Lowe, has managed a whopping three quality starts in nine games this year, a rate of 33%. That's just not getting the job done, and it's killing the Red Sox. Looking at Clement's stats, we see that the average batter against him is hitting .324 against him, with a .425 on-base percentage and a .456 slugging percentage, an .879 OPS. The hitter currently matching that stat: Kevin Mench, of the Texas Rangers. I don't think I'm alone in suggesting that when the average opposition hitter is Kevin Mench, you can expect to give up a lot of runs. And Clement has obliged, giving up 38 runs (36 earned) in his nine starts. Throw in his 51 innings in those nine starts and this is the hole the Red Sox put themselves in every time they send Clement to the mound: he'll give up 4.2 runs in 5.2 innings. So in an average Clement start, you've got to score five runs and get perfect bullpen work for 3.1 innings to win. It's a wonder he's only 4-4, a testament to the number of runs the Sox have scored for him.

Of course, you can't replace someone with no one, and with Bronson Arroyo now wearing a Reds uniform and Wells still a question mark, the Sox are a little light in the starting pitching department. They do have two starters down at Pawtucket who might fit the bill, however: Abe Alvarez and Jon Lester. Lester is expected to be a horse, so the Red Sox may be reluctant to bring him up, but that still leaves Alvarez. No, he's not going to set the league on fire, but it's hard to imagine he'll be any worse than Clement has been this year, and he won't cost $9 million a year. Granted, the Sox are stuck paying Clement's salary unless they can convince another team to take him off their hands, but just because they have to pay him, it doesn't mean they have to play him.

If David Wells is capable of starting with minimal effectiveness, it's time for the Red Sox to look elsewhere. Alvarez deserves a chance to show that he can outpitch Clement, because the Red Sox are not going far this season with a fourth starter who makes the average batter look better than Alex Rodriguez.

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May 01, 2006

Poor Johnny

So I'm watching the Yankees-Red Sox game, which is notable for Johnny Damon's return to Boston as well as the usual Boston-New York drama. The announcers are spending most of their time discussing Damon's decision to leave Boston for the Yankees.

Personally, while I was sorry to see Damon leave, I didn't blame him for taking more money. I'd like to believe that I would stay in a place I loved for less money, but $12 million is a lot of money and I don't know if I could turn it down. But when Damon started whining about how the Red Sox had disrespected him (I wish I could be disrespected for $40 million over four years), I lost any sympathy I had for the man. Now he's apparently been whining for several days about how unfair it is that the Red Sox fans are going to boo him (a favorite sign tonight: "Looks like Jesus, Acts like Judas, Throws like Mary") after all he did for the Red Sox. Yes, Damon did a great deal for the Red Sox, and I won't soon forget his grand slam against the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. He played hard, he played hurt, and he was fun to watch. But he also decided that money was more important than his history for the Red Sox. The idea that fans are somehow unfair to hold that against him is ridiculous. I wouldn't boo him, but then, I don't boo people when I go to ball games. And Damon's decision to go public with his complaints just makes him look like a spoiled child.

Do I wish he was still playing for Boston? Sure, and so do most Red Sox fans. But he could have done so and become part of the Sox pantheon of stars. Money was more important to him. Now he's unhappy because being greedy comes with a price? Remind me to feel sorry for him.

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April 03, 2006

Baseball 2006

Life is good, for baseball has returned. Boston beat up on the Rangers to break a five-year Opening Day losing streak and start the 2006 season off on a good note. Curt Schilling looked very good, and the Red Sox offense looked quite solid as well. Keith Foulke had some trouble closing out the game, but all-in-all it was a good start, and if we can only have one of Foulke and Schilling at full effectiveness, I'll take Schill any day. I do hope Foulke gets his stroke back as well, of course, as I'd rather not have to rely on Craig Hansen any sooner than necessary, but I think it's easier to find a good closer than a good starter, and 200 innings of Curt Schilling will go a long ways towards making the Sox competitive this year.

On a separate note, I don't care what the sportwriters say, Jimmy Rollins does not have a 37-game hitting streak going. A hitting streak does not extend past the end of a season. There's just too much time and too many games between the end of one season and the beginning of another for a streak to carry on. I realize that I'm fighting the sportswriters on this, but I stand by it. After 30-odd spring training games, the idea that he's just picked up his hitting streak with today's double is silly. If he wants to be DiMaggio, he's got 56 more games to go.

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March 22, 2006

The Breakup Continues

Shamed into it by the mighy Enrak, a few words on the Red Sox's decision to send pitcher Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for outfielder Wily Mo Pena. This is a trade that is difficult to assess, as neither player has yet to establish a consistent level of performance.

Arroyo set career highs in innings and wins last year, his first as a full-time part of Boston's rotation. He's relatively young and has good stuff, if not overpowering. On the other hand, he was knocked around in some important games last year, and my personal impression of him is that he's not particularly mentally tough. While Bronson is remembered for plinking Alex Rodriguez in 2004, sparking the brawl that helped launch the Sox to their World Championship, the plain fact is ARod caused that brawl by being a punk. Arroyo had no intention of hitting him, and proved it by failing to pitch inside to ARod ever since. Given the importance of pitching inside to successful pitching, that mental issue makes me question if Arroyo can ever harness his stuff to become a real A-level starter. His decision to stay out late playing in his band the night prior to his start kicking off the second half of last season also leads me to question his judgement.

Pena, on the other hand, has a huge upside potential but who knows if he can realize that potential. To date he's a human fan, striking out an inordinate number of times when he's played. Yes, he's got good power, but the Red Sox don't need another Rob Deer, especially when Pena, unlike Deer, also doesn't walk much. Unless Pena learns to control the strike zone, he's not going to be a star. Is the potential there? Sure, a 24-year old who can play Major League Baseball is a valuable commodity. But he's got a long ways to go to make this deal a winner for the Sox.

Bottom line: it's too early to tell. My heart hates to see Arroyo leave, as the core of the 2004 team is down to less than half-a-dozen players, but my head says wait and see. This may turn out to be a great deal for the Sox. On the other hand, it may turn out to be another chink in the armor of the sainted Theo Epstein. Obviously, I'm hoping for the former, but I'm curious how much sabrmetric analysis the Sox braintrust put into this deal

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January 10, 2006

Hall of Fame 2006

As numerous writers have noted, 2006 is a bit of a slim year for the Baseball Hall of Fame with no clear candidates for inclusion. With the results of the election due in only a few hours, I thought I'd post my own ballot. As I am not a member of the Baseball Writer's Association of America, my ballot has no bearing on the results of the election, but I'll post it anyhow for the purpose of spurring a little discussion.

Before noting who I would vote for, I will note that my opinions come from the theory there is no insult in not being elected to the Hall of Fame. There are many very good players who will never see their face on a plaque in Cooperstown. The idea that a player is insulted by his exclusion from the Hall turns the entire concept of the Hall on its head. Cooperstown exists to honor the best baseball players who ever lived. Failing to clear that bar is hardly an insult. Even in cases where the Hall has erred (Tinker to Evers to Chance, anyone?), it should be our goal to avoid such mistakes in the future rather than using them as a new basis for what constitutes a Hall of Fame ballplayer.

Looking at this year's ballot, I could see three candidates I consider worthy of inclusion: Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, and Tommy John. Blyleven and John, while not stereotypical Hall of Fame players, simply won too many games not to be enshrined, and Gossage really is what we think of when we think Hall of Fame: he was a nonpareil ballplayer whose abilities were far beyond his peers.

A few notes on those I would not select.

Jack Morris. I find little more amazing than writers who will vote for Morris, but who leave Blyleven and John to languish. Yes, I realize that Morris pitched one of the greatest games of the century in the 1991 World Series, but the Hall of Fame is about a career, not just one game, no matter how important. And Morris simply doesn't stack up against true Hall of Famers.

Jim Rice. This was a tough one. Rice was an amazing hitter for an eleven year span. But after that, he fell off the table. Does eleven years of good hitting make up for what was, effectively, a short career? Ultimately, I come down against him. He wouldn't drag down the standards of the Hall were he inducted, but I think his career really falls in the next tier, players who were good, but who weren't quite Hall of Famers.

Bruce Sutter. Sutter is the most likely candidate from this year, but the fact is he's not on the same level as Gossage. Twelve seasons isn't much of a career, and while he was terrific, he would have had to have been unhittable to justify the Hall for only 1,000 innings.

Let the debate begin.

Posted at 10:13 AM · Baseball • · Baseball · Comments (0) · TrackBack (0)

Hall of Fame 2006

As numerous writers have noted, 2006 is a bit of a slim year for the Baseball Hall of Fame with no clear candidates for inclusion. With the results of the election due in only a few hours, I thought I'd post my own ballot. As I am not a member of the Baseball Writer's Association of America, my ballot has no bearing on the results of the election, but I'll post it anyhow for the purpose of spurring a little discussion.

Before noting who I would vote for, I will note that my opinions come from the theory there is no insult in not being elected to the Hall of Fame. There are many very good players who will never see their face on a plaque in Cooperstown. The idea that a player is insulted by his exclusion from the Hall turns the entire concept of the Hall on its head. Cooperstown exists to honor the best baseball players who ever lived. Failing to clear that bar is hardly an insult. Even in cases where the Hall has erred (Tinker to Evers to Chance, anyone?), it should be our goal to avoid such mistakes in the future rather than using them as a new basis for what constitutes a Hall of Fame ballplayer.

Looking at this year's ballot, I could see three candidates I consider worthy of inclusion: Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, and Tommy John. Blyleven and John, while not stereotypical Hall of Fame players, simply won too many games not to be enshrined, and Gossage really is what we think of when we think Hall of Fame: he was a nonpareil ballplayer whose abilities were far beyond his peers.

A few notes on those I would not select.

Jack Morris. I find little more amazing than writers who will vote for Morris, but who leave Blyleven and John to languish. Yes, I realize that Morris pitched one of the greatest games of the century in the 1991 World Series, but the Hall of Fame is about a career, not just one game, no matter how important. And Morris simply doesn't stack up against true Hall of Famers.

Jim Rice. This was a tough one. Rice was an amazing hitter for an eleven year span. But after that, he fell off the table. Does eleven years of good hitting make up for what was, effectively, a short career? Ultimately, I come down against him. He wouldn't drag down the standards of the Hall were he inducted, but I think his career really falls in the next tier, players who were good, but who weren't quite Hall of Famers.

Bruce Sutter. Sutter is the most likely candidate from this year, but the fact is he's not on the same level as Gossage. Twelve seasons isn't much of a career, and while he was terrific, he would have had to have been unhittable to justify the Hall for only 1,000 innings.

Let the debate begin.

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December 27, 2005

Rice and the Hall

I remember watching Jim Rice play for the Red Sox in the mid-80s. By then he wasn't nearly the threat he had been in his heyday, but he was still a fun player to watch, and his assumption of the left field position that had been Carl Yaztremski's and Ted Williams' before that seemed quite appropriate. It has been 17 years since Rice retired, and in that time he has watched from afar year after year as the Hall of Fame vote has denied him entry for 11 straight years. Now Sean McAdam argues it's time to right that wrong, citing Rice's numbers in the context of his career and making a reasonable case for Rice's admission to the Hall. But in the course of making his argument, McAdam makes a classic error that sorely undermines his case.

"Among all major leaguers, only nine players have compiled as high a career batting average (.298) and as many homers. They are: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Stan Musial."

I don't have my stat books handy, so I can't check the accuracy of this, but we'll assume that McAdam's factual argument is correct. My question is, so what? Yes, Jim Rice is one of ten men to accomplish those feats. Bill James once described this as the "He's in the group" fallacy, and here's why: of the ten men in that 'group,' Rice ranks tied for ninth in batting average with Mantle and tenth in home runs, 93 home runs behind the number nine guy. He's only in that group because his stats are set as the minimums. Babe Ruth, who hit .342 and 714 home runs is in the group, but Albert Belle, who hit .295 and 381 home runs is out. You tell me: is Jim Rice more comparable to the Babe, or to Belle? Belle is out of the group because he hit for too low an average and too few home runs: he's three points behind Rice in average and one home run off the mark. Babe Ruth, who his 332 more home runs and batted 44 points higher than Rice is in the group. There's no doubt that's a great group of hitters. There's also no doubt Jim Rice wasn't in their league as a hitter.

That hardly makes him ineligible for the Hall. Rice's numbers were solid, and he was a great hitter for a dozen years. His entry into the Hall would not be dragging the Hall down by any stretch of the imagination. But arguments like McAdam's only serve to muddy the waters and detract from Rice's true accomplishments by creating arbitrary and silly groupings like that. McAdam has a number of good arguments for why Rice should be in the Hall. It's a shame he closed his argument with a bad one.

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October 31, 2005

Theo Resigns

And so another chapter of the storied Boston Red Sox comes to a close as Theo Epstein leaves Boston after three glorious years as general manager. Theo's tenure was marked as the first time in Boston history the team reached the postseason in three consecutive seasons, not to mention the little matter of the team's World Series victory.

Unfortunately, it appears that Epstein had some personal issues with club president Larry Luccino, issues that apparently were bad enough to convince him to turn down a three year, $4.5 million contract. That is bad news for the Red Sox, and quite possibly for Epstein as well.

Let's recap the Theo era. Yes, Theo brought us a title, and I certainly will buy him a beer whenever he wants one for that triumph. The Sox came within one Grady Little meltdown of reaching the World Series in Theo's first year in Boston. His moves during the 2004 season were brilliant, from moving Nomar to the pickup of the sublime Dave Roberts. However, his encore in 2005 was far less impressive, with the Sox' weaknesses completely exposed by the White Sox in the ALDS. A good record? Absolutely. But mistakes were made as well, and Theo's reputation as a wunderkind was seriously undermined by the Sox' troubles this year.

In any case, Theo is now gone, and the Red Sox must move on. More than half the starting lineup will turn over in the offseason, and the Sox are desperate for some solid starting pitching and another good arm in the bullpen. Whoever replaces Epstein will have an uphill climb on his hands. I wish Theo the best in his future endeavors, but the Sox will go on without him, and the sooner, the better.

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September 22, 2005

Wait 'til Next Year?

The hits just keep on coming for the 2005 Red Sox. One day after watching their onetime four-game lead turn into a half-game deficit, the word from Boston is that last year's World Series hero, Keith Foulke, will not play the rest of the year. While Foulke has not contributed much this year anyhow, the Sox bullpen is so awful right now this loss makes their chances of coming back in the AL East very poor indeed.

The only hope the Sox have right now is for manager Terry Francona to start making better use of his rookies in the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon has been moderately effective out of the pen, and new draft pick Craig Hansen was stellar in his one outing thus far and has yet to surrender a run in his short professional career. Manny Delcarmen has shown some promise as well, striking out more than a batter an inning in limited action thus far. Yes, they're rookies, and they might not hold up in the heat of a playoff race, but let's ask the pertinent question: what other options do we have?

Foulke is gone for the year. Timlin is worn out. Myers and Bradford can probably be used more than they have to date, but they can't carry the load alone. If the Sox are going to be competitive down the stretch (and they have not been since they left New York), they're going to need to revamp their bullpen to keep them in close games, and that means using the rookies. The question that remains is, does Francona have the vision to see that, or will he continue to try and ride Timlin's arm right out of the postseason picture?

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September 21, 2005

Back

There's nothing like watching your favorite team blow an eighth inning lead to give the division to your arch-rivals to make you realize you need a platform for blowing off steam. And what better platform is there than a blog, right? So, rather than throw things at the TV and shout obscenities out the window (which my neighbors seem to take great exception to, judging from the number of police cars that arrived the last time), I think it's time to get back to blogging so I can take my aggressions out in a forum where no one will mind. Or notice. It will probably take me a little time to get back up to blogging speed, so have a little patience with me. Comments, as always, will drive me straight up the wall.

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April 12, 2005

Three Cheers for Mo

Even if you took away all of the World Series that Joe Torre has led the Yankees to, he would still get my vote for the Hall of Fame for his success in making the Yankees into such a classy organization. Even a diehard Red Sox fan like yours truly has a hard time actually hating the Yankees players (except ARod) because they play the game right.

Today's exhibit: Mariano Rivera, who was greeted with mock cheers from the Fenwey faithful yesterday. Rivera has had a rough time with the Sox lately: he blew saves in games four and five of last year's ALCS as the Sox became the first team in baseball history to rally from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven game series. Rivera since blew two more saves against the Sox last week in Yankee Stadium, although Derek Jeter rescued one of those games with a walkoff homerun. In the wake of this minor bad patch after proving himself the best closer in baseball over the last decade, suddenly people are asking if he's washed up, and Rivera even heard boos in the Bronx last week.

Despite all this, Rivera took the Fenway ribbing by doffing his cap to acknowledge the cheers. As is the standard for Torre's Yankees, Rivera took what could have been an uncomfortable moment and played it with pure class.

Fortunately the Sox beat the Yankees handily, obviating the need to face Rivera again. Because no matter how many times the Sox come back on him, you can be sure Rivera will never make it easy on them.

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April 03, 2005

OK, the Season has started, Guys

If the Red Sox' offseason acquisitions can't do better the rest of the way than they did tonight, Theo Epstein's reign as resident genius will be short-lived indeed.

More seriously, while not the way you'd like to see the Sox start the season, I still can't complain too much. Baseball is back and the Red Sox are still world champions.

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Opening Night

It measures just 9 inches in circumference, weighs only about 5 ounces, and is made of cork wound with woolen yarn, covered with two layers of cowhide, and stiched by hand precisely 216 times. It travels 60 feet 6 inches from the pitcher's mound to home--and it can cover that distance at nearly 100 miles an hour. Along the way it can be made to twist, spin, curve, wobble, rise, or fall away.

The bat is made of turned ash, less than 42 inches long, not more than 2 3/4 inches in diameter. The batter has only a few thousandths of a second to decide to hit the ball. And yet the men who fail seven times out of ten are considered the game's greatest heroes.

It is played everywhere. In parks and playground and prison yards. In back alleys and farmers fields. By small children and by old men. By raw amateurs and millionare professionals. It is a leisurely game that demands blinding speed. The only game where the defense has the ball. It follows the seasons, beginning each year with the fond expectancy of springtime and ending with the hard facts of autumn.

Americans have played baseball for more than 200 years, while they conquered a continent, warred with one another and with enemies abroad, struggled over labor and civil rights and the meaning of freedom.

At the games's heart lie mythic contradictions: a pastoral game, born in crowded cities; an exhilarating democratic sport that tolerates cheating and has excluded as many as it has included; a profoundly conservative game that sometimes manages to be years ahead of its time.

It is an American odyssey that links sons and daughters to father and grandfathers. And it reflects a host of age-old American tensions: between workers and owners, scandal and reform, the individual and the collective.

It is a haunted game, where each player is measured by the ghosts of those who have gone before. Most of all, it is about time and timelessness, speed and grace, failure and loss, imperishable hope, and coming home.

"Baseball is not a life or death matter. But the Red Sox are."

Tonight the Red Sox begin their defense of their 2004 title, with David Wells facing off against Randy Johnson. I wouldn't bet against Randy ever, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees win yet another AL East title in 2005. But the Yankees know that winning the East isn't enough, and that the Sox will still be staring them in the face in October.

But what is in many ways more important is that baseball is back. Tom Boswell once observed that there is something in the six months when baseball is played that is missing during the offseason; it's not that you have to watch a game, but it helps to know that it's there if you need it. I can't express it any better than that. With baseball beginning once again tonight, the days will be just a little brighter and happier regardless of who wins the games (though I'll naturally be rooting for the Sox to successfully defend their title). Welcome back to the Boys of Summer.

And to all those who said that Red Sox fans would regret seeing the Sox win it all because we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves: to quote Edna Krabapple: Hah!

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February 13, 2005

Now We're Talking

You scored as Curt Schilling. You are Curt Schilling! You are a trooper. You push yourself to the limit, regardless of any setbacks. You are also not afraid to express your opinions on a variety of topics. Very family-oriented. You're the man!! Curt Schilling 60% Johnny Damon 53% Kevin Millar 50% Jason Varitek 47% Theo Epstein 47% David Ortiz 47% Manny Ramirez 34% Mark Bellhorn 33% Which Red Sox Player Are You? created with QuizFarm.com

Courtesy Dan Drezner.

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January 16, 2005

I'm Thankful to God It's All Over

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December 17, 2004

The Red Sox Secret Revealed

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December 14, 2004

A Farewell to Arm

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November 30, 2004

One Down, Four to Go

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Baseball Whores

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November 13, 2004

A Stand Against Baseball Extortion

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October 29, 2004

Now What?

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No Joy Without a Little Sadness

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October 27, 2004

This Is Next Year

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Game Four

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October 26, 2004

Why Not Us?

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Game Three

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October 24, 2004

Game Two Recap

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Game Two

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October 23, 2004

Game One Analysis

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Game One

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The Real Mission Begins

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October 20, 2004

Do You Believe In Miracles?

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Stupid, Really Stupid, and Francona Stupid

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October 11, 2004

It's On: ALCS 2004

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September 30, 2004

Bring on the Grays

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September 24, 2004

Unbelievable

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September 17, 2004

Unbelievable

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Just Hit the Damn Homer, Barry

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Steinbrenner for the Baseball Hall of Fame? Yes.

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September 07, 2004

The Yankees Embarrass Themselves

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August 23, 2004

Dare We Believe?

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July 09, 2004

Who's Number Five?

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June 16, 2004

Ugh

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June 02, 2004

Rocketman Firing Away

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May 22, 2004

Heh

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April 30, 2004

The Power of Faith

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April 12, 2004

Opening Day

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April 08, 2004

It's Henry Aaron

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April 04, 2004

Still Better than Football

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Life Matters Again

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March 30, 2004

Another Season Begins

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February 14, 2004

The Rich Get...Oh, Never Mind

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February 04, 2004

42

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January 06, 2004

Hall of Fame Class of 2004

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January 05, 2004

Baseball, Gambling, and Charlie Hustle

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January 03, 2004

Rose's Return

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December 27, 2003

That's Terrible...In Principle

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December 11, 2003

Good Times

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November 28, 2003

The Race Begins

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November 24, 2003

Warren Spahn, 1921-2003

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October 20, 2003

Little Credit

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Ain't It The Truth?

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October 17, 2003

Screw Miserable

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October 16, 2003

Worst Manager Ever

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October 15, 2003

Do You Believe in Miracles? We'll See...

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October 13, 2003

And Then There Were Three

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October 11, 2003

Big Trouble in River City

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Ugly

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October 09, 2003

Missed Opportunities

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October 08, 2003

Time to Enjoy, But Not to Gloat

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LCS Predictions

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October 07, 2003

Those Who Can't Win...

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October 06, 2003

Never Easy

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October 05, 2003

Pushing the Envelope

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October 04, 2003

The Game No One Wanted to Win

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October 02, 2003

All the Difference

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Good Night

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October 01, 2003

Quel Surprise

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Pedro's Guts

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Unlikely Heroes

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Pitching Issue?

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Oakland's Edge

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Good Omen for Oakland

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And They're Off

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September 30, 2003

A Fine Start

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September 28, 2003

Playoffs 2003

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September 25, 2003

See You in October

For the first time in four years, the Boston Red Sox are going to the playoffs. So if you can't stand baseball, you're forewarned to stay away from here until the last out of the World Series. Boston will open at Oakland next Wednesday, doubtless with Pedro Martinez on the mound and all their sluggers lining up at the plate. It looks to be a very interesting postseason. As soon as the NL races wrap up, I'll review my predictions from earlier this year and give my predictions for the playoffs.

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September 24, 2003

Never Say Die

Am I a believer yet? No, not quite yet. But the Red Sox are making it very hard to ignore them with their 6-5 comeback win over the Orioles last night. Trail 5-2 in the bottom of the ninth, Todd Walker stroked a three-run homer on a 3-2 count with two outs to knot the game at five. David Ortiz, 2003's answer to Dave Henderson, then hit the fourth pitch of the tenth inning into the seats over the Monster to notch another victory for the Red Sox. With Seattle losing to Anaheim, the Red Sox are now almost guaranteed the wild card berth.

That means they'll face Oakland in the first round, a tough row to hoe. As I've been saying for weeks now, it's all going to come down to the Red Sox bats; if they can knock Oakland's pitching around, the Red Sox have a good shot at the title. But first, they've got to win again tonight and, hopefully, clinch their first playoff berth since 1999. Then it's the playoffs, when anything can happen...

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September 23, 2003

Raw Courage

Dan Drezner has become the latest columnist to predict a Red Sox World Series victory. Dan offers a pretty good rationale for his prediction, but I'm afraid it's not enough to make a believer out of this Red Sox fan. Yes, Dan is correct that the Sox have overcome a lot of adversity this year, but they're also a very good baseball team, and they're going to the playoffs because of their talent. But their pitching staff just doesn't have the chops to take them to the World Series unless the hitting absolutely explodes in the postseason. And when you look at how much lower scores are in the postseason than in the regular season, it becomes clear that's just not likely to happen. The Sox may overcome Oakland to reach the ALCS again, but I don't think their pitching can put together the necessary sustained run of excellence to carry them to a World Series victory.

You may rest assured I'll be glued to the tube praying that it can, though.

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September 15, 2003

Paying Up

Mild kudos to Michelle of A Small Victory, who (finally, kinda-sorta) has made good on her wager of a week ago. Stop by and tell her how good the logo looks on her, even if it's not really on her.

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September 07, 2003

Think Wild Card

Last baseball post for a while, I promise. But I had to note the Yankees' successful defense of their home turf, as they nipped the Red Sox 3-1 behind a great effort by David Wells. With the Sox 2 1/2 games out with 20 to play, they need to focus on the wild card the rest of the way. Seattle is only 1 1/2 games back, so the Sox will have to play well down the stretch simply to hold them off. Despite my earlier prediction, I do think the Sox have to be considered the favorite for the wild card, as they only have three games left against a good team (Chicago), and 11 of 20 at home. But it will take a small miracle to overtake the Yankees from here on out, as they don't have a particularly tough schedule, either. As an aside, given that we all know the Sox and Yankees will be duking it out at the end of the season, why is it they don't close out the season with each other, instead of Baltimore and Tampa?

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September 06, 2003

The Yankees' Worst Nightmare

That's right. The Boss is angry. So angry, he's talking about cleaning house if the Yankees don't win it all this year. Is there a sweeter thought than that?

Brian Cashman has built an amazing powerhouse of a team. Joe Torre has done a great job managing it. The sad fact is, with three rounds of postseason play the team that wins the World Series has to rely on luck as much as skill to close the deal. The Yankees have done that as well as anyone under Torre, yet Steinbrenner still isn't happy. His competitive fire is what has helped make the Yankees what they are today, but it could also be their undoing. If the Yankees don't take the Series, and it's pretty good odds they won't, Steinbrenner could ruin a very good team in short order.

Will he be that stupid? It's too early to tell; besides, the Yankees certainly could win the Series this year. But it sounds like their run of titles has made Steinbrenner forget about some of the hard facts of baseball. It would be a shame if that led to his wrecking his own team again. (OK, it wouldn't break my heart, but I'd rather see the Sox beat the Yankees straight up.)

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Ouch

Every once in a while, the universe makes sense. Michele of A Small Victory threw down a small wager yesterday regarding the outcome of the Red Sox-Yankees series I've been agonizing about all week. Although I didn't take her up on the wager, you may rest assured that I'll be more than happy to post a prominent link when Michele pays up.

But it's probably not a good idea to talk to her about it right now.

And in all seriousness, the Sox really still have to win tomorrow to make things interesting. A Yankees win tomorrow would increase their lead back to 2 1/2 games. With only three weeks to play, that's a reasonably secure lead. Today was fun, but there's still a lot of baseball left to be played.

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September 05, 2003

A Good Start

As I predicted earlier this week, the Red Sox are doing a great job of teasing the faithful after their 9-3 pasting of the Yankees tonight. Red Sox fans everywhere are doubtless calculating the odds of the Sox knocking Clemens out early tomorrow to set up the sweep for Sunday. Unfortunately, reality is unlikely to conform to those fantasies.

Yet even a diehard cynic like myself can't help but wonder 'what if.' Checking the Red Sox' expected wins and losses, we see that the only reason the Yankees lead in the AL East is because they've been lucky. Based on their runs scored and runs allowed, the Yankees should be 80-59, 1 1/2 games behind the Sox rather than 2 1/2 up. While that doesn't mean anything in the standings, it's a sign of a team's overall quality: the Red Sox match up very well with the Yankees, although I still believe the Yankees' superior pitching will serve them better than the Sox' superlative offense. (Brief explanation: the pythagorean theorem of baseball says that a team will win a percentage of its games roughly equal to the ratio of its runs scored squared to runs allowed squared. Most teams will finish within three games of that percentage. Those that do not have been either lucky or unlucky, based on the fact teams don't have trends of consistently winning more or fewer games than the theorem would predict. For those who don't put any truck in the method, you should be aware that the team with the best expected winning percentage last year was...the Anaheim Angels...their World Series run should have been easily predicted, though I'll confess I missed the signs as well.)

Does this mean I'm going back on my earlier cynicism? Hardly. The Sox and the Yanks are evenly matched, but the Yanks are playing at home. With Clemens tossing his last regular season game with the Sox, expect his adrenalin to carry him to the win. The Red Sox may still take the series, with Wells pitching on Sunday, but unless they sweep, the AL East is out of reach and they're going to have to settle for the wild card at best.

And a short note to Dave Pinto: speaking as a Sox fan, I wasn't worried when Sauerbeck loaded the bases; I was pissed. The guy has a disturbing talent for putting runners on base, and the fact Little keeps trotting him out there to do it again is mind-boggling. (Granted, had the game been closer, I would have worried. With an eight-run cushion, it's just incredibly annoying.)

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September 03, 2003

Adrenalin Days

It's games like this, and really all of the Sox' last three games, that drive Red Sox fans insane.

In three days, the Red Sox have come back from a two-run ninth inning deficit to defeat the Phillies 13-9 in an ugly, ugly game, followed by a game in which they were two-hit, but won 2-1 because their two hits left the yard, and tonight's 5-4 squeaker, where Joe Crede very nearly tied the game again with the last at-bat of the game, driving a fastball to the fence in right.

Naturally, these heroics come after a weekend of lost chances, with the Sox dropping two of three to New York in Fenway. Coming into that series four games out, the Sox needed to win at least two of three to set themselves up for success when they visit Yankee Stadium this weekend, if they were to have any hope of winning the American League East. After their pitiful performance against the Yankees, it was obvious the Sox would have to pin their hopes on the wild card. But the Red Sox don't work that way.

No, since then they've won three in a row on the road, while the Yankees have dropped two of three, meaning the Sox will be no worse than 3 1/2 games out when they hit New York this Friday. If they could sweep the Yankees on the road, the Sox will be either 1/2 game up or 1/2 game back in the AL East, and the division race is on again. Of course, there's no way in hell it will come to that. The Yankees will take at least two of three from the Sox this weekend, once again knocking the Red Sox away from the top of the AL East. But Boston has to at least make it interesting, which they certainly have this week. If only they could learn how to close the deal.

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August 12, 2003

Rose's Return

"Baseball must be a great game, because the owners haven't been able to kill it."
--Bill Veeck

Major League Baseball is denying rumors of a 2004 return for Pete Rose. I'd like to believe that's true, but even if it is, the way MLB is handling the issue makes it all too clear they don't understand the real issue at stake.

MLB says that for Rose to return, he's got to admit he bet on baseball and apologize for the damage he's done to the sport. The second qualification is more indicative of the fantasy world baseball executives inhabit than a reasonable request. Bud Selig, George Steinbrenner, Marge Schott and the rest of baseball's 'leadership' have done far more harm to the game than Pete Rose ever could. From interleague play to expanded playoffs, the MLB executives have cheapened the game and cost it far more prestige than Rose, even should it be proven he bet on Cinncinnati Reds baseball. But the first qualification is simply appalling. If Pete Rose didn't bet on Reds baseball, then I have no objection to his reinstatement. He's certainly paid for any gambling he did in general, and as long as he didn't bet on games he was involved in, the damage to the game is limited. If he bet on his own games, however, it's a completely different issue.

Betting on your own baseball game as a player or manager is the only truly capital crime in baseball, and for good reason. As was immortalized in John Sayles excellent film, Eight Men Out, a few players can change the outcome of a game or even the World Series. What makes sports popular is that fans go to the games not knowing who will win, but expecting that both sides will try. In the wake of the Black Sox scandal, baseball attendance plummetted, because fans no longer were sure the games were real, or simply exhibitions for the gamblers. Only the harsh actions of Kenesaw Mountain Landis in expelling ballplayers known to have been involved with gamblers, coupled with the massive popularity of the home run brought on by the emergence of Babe Ruth as a full-time player brought the game back from the brink. Since that time, baseball has vigilantly patrolled its ranks to ensure that gamblers cannot gain a new foothold. Until now.

For if Rose did bet on his own team, there is no suitable penalty but the one under which he currently labors: expulsion. While reinstating Rose would not undermine confidence in the game by itself, it would send a powerful lesson to players and gamblers alike: throwing games may not carry the death sentence it's supposed to. This is a message that cannot be allowed. This involves more than just Pete Rose, it is a question of the integrity of the game.

Yet MLB seems blind to this issue. They seem more interested in making Rose grovel than in addressing the issue at hand: did Rose bet on Reds baseball? If so, he shouldn't be allowed back, regardless of his level of contrition or how the fans feel. If not, reinstatement is proper and should be implemented as quickly as possible, again regardless of Rose's level of contrition. Baseball's approach to this situation seems designed to do far more harm than good for a game its masters claim to love.

Update (8/13/03): ESPN writers Rob Neyer and Jim Caple weigh in.

Posted at 12:14 PM · Baseball

August 10, 2003

The 2003 Home Stretch

With roughly seven weeks left in the baseball season, it's time to look at the races and see who's likely to be playing this October. As always, the season thus far has included some big surprises and some non-surprises. And with baseball's foolishly expanded playoffs, there's a good bet the eventual winner of the World Series will be a surprise as well. In the regular season, however, quality tends to win out.

Which is good news for perennial favorites, New York. The Red Sox have done reasonably well to hang in with the Yankees over the course of the season, but the Yankees far superior pitching will be the difference in the AL East this year. New York should win the East by five to ten games. In the Central, Kansas City's work to date has been nothing short of miraculous, and it would all have gone for naught in a better division. In the weak AL Central, though, KC still holds a half-game lead over Chicago. But this Cinderella story is about tick midnight. Chicago will be the AL Central representative this year. In the AL West, Seattle looks like a lock. Billy Beane's As have been the best team in baseball in the second half for the past few years, but they don't have the horses to catch Seattle this year. Look for them to overtake my Red Sox for the Wild Card. The Sox hitting is absolutely awesome, but unless Pedro and Derek Lowe return to last year's form, they'll finish behind Oakland.

In the National League, things are more interesting. The Braves look unbeatable, but a closer look indicates there's as much luck as skill in their 12.5 game lead in the NL East. The Braves are playing seven games better than their runs scored to runs allowed ratio would indicate, while the Phillies are five games worse than they should be. Look for that gap to close over the next seven weeks. The Phillies won't make up the full twelve games, but they will be good enough to reach the playoffs for the first time since their World Series year of 1993. In the NL Central, Houston looks like the team to beat. While they only hold a 2.5 game lead right now, look for Jimy Williams to keep them just enough ahead of St. Louis to get them to the playoffs. A late run by the Cardinals can't be ruled out, though, as they've had dismal luck this season (8-19 in one-run games), and that could well turn around some as they hit the home stretch. In the NL West, San Francisco is easily the class of its division. They're playing over their heads right now, but Arizona is too old and Los Angeles is short too much talent for either of them to overtake the Giants. It will be nice to see Felipe Alou finally reach the playoffs.

Check back in seven weeks to see my mea culpas. And if you're a betting man, don't blame me if you lose money.

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July 27, 2003

Hall of Fame 2003

The Baseball Hall of Fame has not always lived up to its billing. Though it enshrines such greats as Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Henry Aaron, it also holds plaques for players like Phil Rizzuto and Harry Hooper. Though by no means bad players, such inductions cheapen the Hall by mixing the merely very good players with the truly great. Sunday's induction of Eddie Murray and Gary Carter, however, held no such stigma.

Murray was simply awesome, of course. Although frequently cited for being one of three men with 3,000 hits and 500 home runs (the other two are Mays and Aaron), such a comparison is unfair to Murray. No, he wasn't The Hammer or the Say-Hey Kid, but such a comparison is unfair. Murray hit for average and power, and he wasn't afraid of drawing a walk if it would help the team. In 21 major league seasons, Murray played in 150 or more games 16 times, including six seasons in which he logged 160 or more games, a testament to his drive and stamina. Winner of the 1977 AL Rookie of the Year award, Murray would play on the AL All Star team fifteen times. Though his tempestous relationship with the press ensured he was rarely quoted, Murray's talent was big enough to overcome such a minor stigma.

Gary Carter, in comparison, seems like a pretender to Murray. 1200 fewer hits, 180 fewer home runs, Carter's hitting statistics seem a faith shadow of Murray's. Until you realize Carter was a catcher. Not only a catcher, but an excellent catcher. Carter kept his team in games consistently through his superior defense and game calling ability. And, when he stepped to the plate, opposing defenses knew they couldn't relax or Carter would make them pay. I've certainly never forgiven him for his role on the 1986 Mets squad, but sour grapes aside, there's no question Carter is a great selection for the Hall.

Congratulations to these excellent ballplayers. May children still be reading about your exploits 100 years from now.

And let's also hear it for the Red Sox, who finally managed to take a series from the Damnyankees. Excellent.

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June 13, 2003

History

Congratulations to the Rocket for finally winning number 300 at Yankee Stadium tonight. This doesn't mean much in the grand scheme, as Clemens is already one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived, but it's a great milestone that he certainly earned.

If only it hadn't come in a Yankees uniform.

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May 26, 2003

Stupid Milestone Tricks

Joe Torre put Roger Clemens at unconscionable risk today in his attempt to win his 300th victory. While I'll confess I am looking forward to seeing Clemens win number 300 (although I'm glad he didn't do it today, against the Sox), Joe Torre's job isn't to get his hurler a win. It's to get his team a win, and more importantly, to get the Yankees to the playoffs. Letting Clemens throw 133 pitches today not only did him no good, it may well hurt Clemens eventual chance at the record and the Yankees' playoff hopes.

Clemens is going to win 300 games, barring catastrophic injury. He'll get at least 20 more starts this year, so there's little concern about his reaching the milestone. And as long as Clemens is healthy, the Yankees have to be considered favorites to win the AL East again. But every time Clemens throws an excessive number of pitches, it raises the chances of his suffering a career-threatening injury. It will be interesting to see how well Clemens throws in his next start, after today's overexertion. It would be a real shame if Clemens, one of the greatest pitchers of all time, fell short of 300 because his manager failed to take care of him.

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May 25, 2003

Enjoying the Moment

I don't expect this to stand up through the end of the week, so I'm going to enjoy it while I can. The Red Sox are in first place, by God, and life is good.

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May 17, 2003

Baseball at the Quarter-Mile

With the 2003 season one-fourth completed, it seems like a good time to see where things stand.

In the American League, Kansas City is the big surprise, hanging out at the top of the AL Central with an impressive .600 winning percentage, although their run differential (196 runs scored, 195 runs allowed) likely means the Royals will fall back to the pack. The Twins are still the class of the Central, so we should expect to see them once again represented in the playoffs this fall.

The AL East holds no surprises, except perhaps the Red Sox' ability to hang with the Yankees so far. The Yankees success with Derek Jeter gone was impressive, but their talent base is so deep it wasn't a shock, either. They'll walk away with the AL East, as the Red Sox are playing over their heads at the moment. It's fun to watch while it lasts, though.

The AL West looks like it will come down to Oakland and Seattle. Anaheim got lucky last year, and while luck is a crucial part of winning, you can't count on it year-in and year-out, which leaves the division as a toss-up between Seattle and Oakland. My money is on Oakland, simply because Billy Beane is more likely to locate the missing piece at the trade deadline that will give Oakland the advantage.

Which leaves the wild card between Seattle and Boston. Although my heart is, as always, with Boston, they're not going to pull it off unless their pitching takes a major step forward. The Sox' record has been a matter of more luck than skill thus far, as they're currently three games better than their ratio of runs scored to runs allowed would indicate. While their pitching does have great potential, unless they pick it up significantly, look for Seattle to take the wild card.

The National League looks to be interesting this year. Atlanta doesn't look like it's ready to give up on its run of division titles, although it will be interesting to see if they can hold off Philadelphia. Montreal has looked good early, but it's difficult to believe they'll be able to keep it up long enough to take the title. Right now, I'll pick Atlanta to hold onto its crown, but it will be a tight race until the end.

Dusty Baker seems poised to take the Cubs all the way, further cementing his reputation as a managerial genius. But the Cubs' success hinges on the arms of their pitching staff, and Dusty's old-school 'throw until your arm falls off' mentality may drop the Cubs from contention before August. The NL Central's fate will rest on how well Kerry Wood's arm holds up. If the Cubs' pitchers stay healthy, they'll win. But if any of their young arms breaks down under the load, only Milwaukee will keep the Cubs out of the cellar.

San Francisco doesn't appear to have missed a beat without Dusty Baker, and they've got to be considered the favorites to take the West again. The Diamondbacks have finally gotten old, and neither Colorado nor LA has the horses to pass the Giants this year.

As for the NL wild card, Philadelphia should walk home with that if they don't overtake the Braves, so their offseason investments will not have been in vain.

It's been a fun season thus far. Here's hoping the owners won't find a way to ruin it. Check back in a few months, when I'll back off on whichever of these predictions no longer looks good, and try again.

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May 11, 2003

Palmeiro Revisited

ESPN writers Jayson Stark and Rob Neyer take up the question of whether or not Rafael Palmeiro is a Hall of Fame ballplayer. Stark argues in favor, while Neyer argues against. Although they both make reasonable cases, Neyer points out the key issue: how does Palmeiro compare to his contemporaries?

Palmeiro's raw numbers are unquestionably impressive. 500 home runs, .290 career batting average, 1500+ RBI. They're great numbers. But look back over Palmeiro's career, and ask one question: how many times has Palmeiro been the best first baseman in baseball? Not the best player, just the best player at his position? Let's see.

We'll discount 1986 and 1987, as Palmeiro was just breaking in and only logged 294 at-bats between the two seasons. So 1988 was his first full season in the bigs. And while he had an admirable campaign, it's hard to suggest his .307-8-53 is comparable to Fred McGriff (.282-34-82), Mark McGwire (.260-32-99), Eddie Murray (.284-28-84), Don Mattingly (.311-18-88) or Andres Galarraga (.302-29-92). In 1989, Palmeiro hit .275-8-64, once again eclipsed by Galarraga, Mattingly, McGriff, and McGwire. 1990 has Palmeiro picking up his power numbers slightly (.319-14-89), but McGriff, McGwire and Murray were still better. In 1991 Palmeiro hit .322-26-88 and went to only his second All-Star game. But Frank Thomas was better, with an awesome .318-32-109 padded with over 100 walks. 1992 saw Palmeiro fall off to .268-22-85, passed up by Jeff Bagwell, McGriff, McGwire and Thomas.

In 1993 Palmeiro jumped to .295-37-105, still behind Thomas and even with McGriff. In 1994, Palmeiro played only 111 games, with a rare injury. In 1995 he bounced back with an excellent .310-39-104 season, but he still couldn't top Mark McGwire or Frank Thomas. 1996 (.289-38-142) was more of the same, as McGwire and Thomas were joined by Bagwell as the top first basemen in the league. In 1997, Palmeiro fell off to .254-38-110, still behind Thomas, Bagwell and McGwire. 1998 finds Raffy trailing McGwire (in his 70-homer year), Carlos Delgado, John Olerud, Bagwell and Thomas. In 1999 Palmeiro has a career year, but McGwire is still better. In 2000 Palmeiro hits .288-39-120, but trails Delgado, Bagwell, Jason Giambi and Thomas. In 2001, Palmeiro hits .273-47-123, but Bagwell and Giambi are still better. Last year Palmeiro hit .273-43-105, still not enough to surpass Giambi.

So there you have it: fifteen years, and not once was Palmerio the best first baseman in baseball. Sure, he's certainly one of the top five or six of his generation, but are we really planning to send the top five or six guys from each position to the Hall?

His career's not over, so it's too early to make a definitive judgement about the Hall. But it does seem like he'll benefit greatly from the inflated hitting statistics of the late 90s and early 21st century.

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May 05, 2003

Stupid Statistical Tricks

ESPN writer Tim Kurkjian has kicked off the Rafael Palmeiro for the Hall of Fame campaign early with a cleverly assembled column of statistical tricks. Kurkjian, like most writers with a favorite for the Hall, selects his evidence carefully to present what appears at first glance to be an airtight case for the Hall. But on closer examination, Kurkjian's case does more to harm than to help Palmeiro's case.

The most egregious example of this comes in Kurkjian's second paragraph:

He's on the verge of hitting his 500th career home run and driving in his 1,600th run, all while keeping a career batting average above .290. Take those three numbers -- 500-1,600-.290 -- and you get this list in baseball history: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mel Ott and Rafael Palmeiro.
Pretty impressive, eh? Until you actually look at the numbers.

Player Average Home Runs RBI
Aaron .305 755 2297
Bonds .295 622 1669
Foxx .325 534 1921
Mays .302 660 1903
Ott .304 511 1860
Robinson .294 586 1812
Ruth .342 711 2210
Williams .344 521 1839
Palmeiro .293 498 1593

Bill James called this the "We can make a group" argument for the Hall. Among that group of nine players, Palmeiro ranks ninth in each category. Because Kurkjian's groupings include minimums but not maximums, what you end up here is not a true group, but a list of the player you're promoting and a bunch of players better than him. Who's truly comparable to Palmeiro in this group:

Player Average Home Runs RBI
Player 1 .305 755 2297
Player 2 .282 475 1540
Palmeiro .293 498 1593

It's pretty obvious that Palmeiro is far more comparable to player 2 than player 1. Player 1 is, of course, Henry Aaron, while player 2 is Willie Stargell. Those of you familiar with baseball know that Stargell is a Hall of Famer as well, which is true, and which is why it's doubly shameful Kurkjian stooped to such a trick. If you were to make a list of players truly comparable to Palmeiro, say by taking all the players who hit .280-.300, 450-550 home runs, and 1500-1700 RBI, you'd end up with a group of players truly similar to Palmeiro. In Palmeiro's case, this group would make a far better argument for Hall of Fame inclusion than Kurkjian's group, because baseball fans instinctively know that Palmeiro isn't really in the same class as Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ted Williams or Babe Ruth. When people see an argument like that, they tend to discount it entirely, because their bullshit meter goes off.

Kurkjian doesn't stop there, though. He next points out Palmeiro's three Gold Gloves. Once again, baseball fans know well that argument simply won't fly; Palmeiro's last Gold Glove came in a season when he played 28 games at first base. The award was a joke, and everyone knew it at the time. For Kurkjian to point to that as evidence of Palmeiro's greatness once again hurts rather than helps Palmeiro's case.

Palmeiro will almost certainly make it to the Hall by the time his career is over. 500 home runs, even in this age of offensive inflation, will make it almost impossible to keep him out. But the argument is ill-served by such shoddy statistical legerdemain as Kurkjian's.

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April 15, 2003

Early Assessment

It’s an unmitigated disaster. A strong start led to hopes of major victories. Only days into the campaign, it appeared we were unstoppable, with our forces establishing a far more impressive record than expected. But it couldn’t last. The strong start was followed by some troubles. Unexpected losses have sapped momentum. Problems that were unanticipated at the opening of the campaign now seem insurmountable. The media is already raising the specter of another horrible defeat, thought many years in the past.

Iraq in early April? No, Red Sox Nation right now. After a 4-1 start, the Sox are struggling to stay over .500 (they’re 8-5 as of this writing), which looks pretty bad with the Yankees off to another hot start. And Boston being the way it is, the roof is falling in once again. Only in Boston could thirteen games determine how the rest of the season might go. OK, so it’s not constrained to Boston, (how many Royals fans are lining up to buy playoff tickets already?), but Boston does seem to have made an art form of hope and despair, and this year looks to be no exception.

Truth to tell, the Red Sox are looking pretty good this year. 8-5 may not sound all that great, but if they can manage to win eight of every thirteen games the rest of the way, they’ll make the playoffs easily. Their bullpen is off to a shaky start, but it’s made up of quality pitchers whose abilities should win out over the course of the season, assuming they’re not injured. I won’t go so far as to suggest that they’ll win the World Series, as Rob Neyer did, but I think they’ve got a pretty good shot at the playoffs. And if they can get there, anything goes. But with 149 games to play, it’s way too early to get overly excited about the standings.

The Yankees will not win 110 games, nor will the Brewers lose 110 (although they’ll be closer to 110 losses than to 80 wins). The Giants will not be back in the World Series this fall. And it promises to be an entertaining season. If only I had that extra innings package so I could actually watch a few more of the games.

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March 31, 2003

It Begins Again

The Rangers beat the Angels 6-3 in Anaheim last night. I'll refrain from predicting anything off this one game, after my performance last year, although I confess I find it unlikely Anaheim will be able to repeat last year's success. Nonetheless, the more important thing is that baseball is back, and the world is a little nicer for that.

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March 30, 2003

What A Great Day

It's Opening Day. Need I say more?

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January 15, 2003

Hall of Fame Redux

Bill Dennis complains that my description of Ryne Sandberg as 'not an obvious Hall of Famer' is erroneous, which is correct. However, Bill's reliance on All-Star Game appearances and Gold Gloves to bolster his case demonstrates the trouble with trying to evaluate baseball players' careers.

First, to address Sandberg. For ten years, from 1984-1993, Sandberg was the best second baseman in the National League. For five of those years, (1984-5, 1990-92), Sandberg was absolutely awesome. His hitting ability placed him head and shoulders above his peers, and he will deserve the Hall of Fame plaque he'll undoubtedly adorn in the next five years.

But to argue that Sandberg dominated the position longer than any other second baseman in history is ludicrous. Joe Morgan set the gold standard for second basemen from 1965-1984. When Morgan retired, he was still a better hitter than average, and he was good defensively as well. To suggest that Sandberg's ten-year run, five years of which were truly outstanding, could even approach Morgan's twenty year run, nine years of which were truly outstanding, is silly.

Or how about Eddie Collins, who set the standard for second basemen from 1909-1924, with thirteen years that were genuinely outstanding? Then again, should we forget Rogers Hornsby, who possesses three of the ten greatest hitting seasons of all time? (Morgan and Collins have two each. Sandberg has none.)

Let's talk about the All-Star Game and the Gold Gloves. All Star players are selected in two ways; the fans vote for the starting players, and the manager of the previous year's league champion selects the rest. The fans have selected such greats as Greg Olson of the Atlanta Braves, whose claim to fame was that he got hot in the first three months of the 1990 season. More to the point, the fans tend to pick the same players year after year. Ozzie Smith was as good a shortstop as Sandberg was a second baseman, and he was selected to the All-Star game for several years after it was clear to an objective observer he was not the best shortstop in the league. Cal Ripken enjoyed a similar status in the American League. And in 1957, Cinncinnati Reds fans managed to stuff the ballot boxes so successfully, seven of the eight NL starters would have been Reds if the Commissioner had not stepped in. Managers, meanwhile, tend to pick as many of their own players as they believe they can get away with, rather than the best players out there. The requirement to pick one player from each team doesn't help, either. Stating that a player is great because he was in a lot of All-Star Games is, at best, an iffy proposition.

But if All-Star voting is a bad way to judge a player, Gold Glove voting is far worse. In the most egregious example, Rafael Palmero received a Gold Glove for his work at first base in 1999, when he played 28 games at the position. Most observers evaluate defense based on how many plays a player makes look difficult. A player who is constantly diving for balls will often be considered a better defensive player than one who rarely has to dive, even though the second player may be a far better defender. Using Gold Glove awards to 'prove' defensive excellence is almost as bad as simply making up statistics.

Ryne Sandberg was a terrific player. But the idea he dominated the position as no player before or since is utterly laughable. I made a bad call in not naming Sandberg as an obvious Hall of Famer, but trying to put Sandberg in the Hall by focusing on dubious accomplishments and outright falsehoods doesn't help the argument.

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January 14, 2003

Our Eroding Freedoms

A friend of mine at work had a rough day yesterday. He's been divorced for eight years, with two children the result of that marriage. His daughter is in his custody, while his son remains in his wife's custody. Although his daughter is in his care, the divorce agreement requires him to pay child support for both children to his ex-wife, which he has done religiously for the past eight years. Indeed, until recently, he sent money above and beyond what was required by the divorce agreement because he could spare it and wanted to help. Recently, his finances have become a little tighter, so he has trimmed his payments to that required by their agreement. This decision annoyed his ex-wife, who had become accustomed to receiving more money from him.

So, she went to her local child services and filed a complaint against him alleging he had not paid his required child support. When my friend discovered this, he was understandably upset, so he contacted child services to see what he needed to do. They acknowledged that he had, in fact, paid his child support on time, and that he had never been delinquent. Great, my friend said, so that's the end of it. Not so fast, replied child services. Because his ex-wife filed a complaint, child services will now be garnishing his wages for his child support, dating back to the first report of delinquent support. They didn't bother to find out if he was, in fact, delinquent. It is their standard policy to immediately begin garnishing wages if a woman complains of delinquency.

Better yet, because they will garnish the alleged delinquencies, my friend will have paid twice for several months of child support. When he asked child services how he could get his money back, he was told he could not. His ex-wife could keep both the money he had sent under the terms of the agreement and the money child services garnished from his wages. If he wishes to try and get his money back, he will have to hire a lawyer with money from his own pocket, with questionable hopes of ever seeing his money again.

I do not see anything wrong with fathers being required to economically support their children, and I'm confident there are some men out there who would not do so except that their wages are garnished. But it seems to me that a very important Constitutional protection has gone by the boards when a person can be deprived of property without due process. In this particular case, my friend keeps records, including endorsed checks, that prove he had made every child support payment on time since the divorce. It would have required no great effort by the child support bureaucracy to verify his story. Instead, they simply assume the ex-wife is telling the truth and start the process to garnish wages. There is no hearing, no trial, no opportunity for my friend to defend himself. He is out several thousand dollars, money he can ill-afford to lose, with no realistic legal recourse.

It's a dirty little secret of the beginnings of America that the government existed, among other things, to protect people's property. It is government enforcement that ensures we can own property without having to defend it with violence. Without government, property belongs to those who can take it and hold it. With government, property belongs to those who hold the proper paperwork. An effective and far better solution to the question of personal property.

Yet that system will not work for long if the government is unwilling to preserve property rights. And more and more often, the government is not only choosing not to defend property rights, but it is the government that is choosing to violate them. Whether it is the guilty even if proven innocent mentality that allows the government to transfer wealth from accused deadbeat dads to their ex-wives, or the similar mentality that allows the government to seize personal property and use it to enrich the government because it was allegedly used in a drug-related crime, our rights to our property are eroding quickly.

It's easy to argue that the ends justify the means in such cases. Drug dealers sell poison to our children; if seizing their assets makes it harder for them to operate, that's a net gain for society. And who can defend deadbeat dads, men who father children and refuse to support those children economically? But when laws presume guilt, and allow the innocent to be punished as easily as the guilty, the laws no longer protect any of us. Most of us will live our lives without having our assets taken away be the government, of course, but that is now because of random chance, rather than protection granted to us by our rights. Sheer luck is not something we can base our government on. If America is truly a nation of laws, where we all possess certain protections, it's time we started forcing the government to live within those restrictions again.

The Constitution and the Bill of Rights are marvelous documents. But they are only words on paper. It requires more than words to protect us from the gradual tyranny of encroaching government.

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January 07, 2003

Hall of Fame Thoughts

Congratulations to Eddie Murray and Gary Carter, who today received the necessary votes for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Both are excellent candidates who are well deserving of selection, although that is not particularly surprising. Historically, the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) has done a very good job of selecting members of the Hall. It is the Veterans' Committee that tends to send up bricks, electing marginal candidates like Phil Rizzuto.

It will be interesting to see who will earn election over the next few years. Next year will see Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor on the ballot for the first time, both of whom should quickly be selected. Joe Carter and Dennis Martinez may draw significant support as well, although I don't know if either is really of Hall of Fame caliber. In 2005, Wade Boggs is the only good candidate, and he should go in on the first ballot. 2006 has no good candidates at all, although Orel Hershiser may make it despite his marginal qualifications. And 2007 will see Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire and Cal Ripken Jr. on the ballot for the first time, giving us a shot at three inductees in the same year.

As for those already on the ballot, it seems very likely Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith and Goose Gossage will very likely reach the Hall eventually. None of them are obvious Hall of Famers, although of that group Gossage and Sutter are probably the cream of the crop.

It is fascinating to see that Darryl Kile received seven votes from the BBWAA this year. While Kile's untimely death was certainly unfortunate, the idea that Kile was a Hall of Fame caliber player is laughable.

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December 12, 2002

Rose and the Hall of Fame

I think Bud Selig just can't help himself. IF there's a decision to be made, he's bound and determined to make the wrong one. And he's ready to shoot another brick with his ongoing talks about reinstating Pete Rose.

I know I'm going against the mainstream here, but I cannot possibly endorse Pete Rose being reinstated to baseball, nor his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Rose was a good ballplayer who set an incredible record, and if that was all he had done, he would have gone to the Hall of Fame more than ten years ago. However, Rose also bet on baseball, and the evidence suggests he bet on his own team. That is the cardinal sin of sports, as it should be.

In 1919, seven members of the Chicago White Sox promised to throw the World Series in exchange for money from gamblers. When the truth came out about the fix, those seven members and Buck Weaver, who was aware of the fix and didn't speak up, were banned from baseball forever. This punishment helped keep gamblers from gaining a foothold on baseball that would have destroyed the sport. If gamblers ever succeed in consistently fixing baseball games, interest in the sport would plummet, and eventually the sport would cease to exist. To prevent that, anyone who has an effect on the outcome of the game must face the strictest possible penalties if they help to fix a game. These rules have existed in baseball for over 80 years. Every player and manager is aware of them, and they are well aware of the potential penalties should they violate them.

Rose did violate them. He may well have bet on his team to win, rather than lose, but that doesn't matter. Rose broke the rule against gambling, and he must pay the price. Is it a harsh price? Absolutely. But it is a necessary one to ensure the game remains viable.

I'd love to see Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame. But it's not me, or Bud Selig, or the Hall of Fame keeping him out. His own actions barred the door, and he must live with those consequences. Allowing him to get away with his misconduct would be bad for the game. That is far more important than helping Rose's self-esteem.

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October 27, 2002

Anaheim Angels, World Champions

Congratulations to the Anaheim Angels for their Game seven victory over the Giants. The Angels did a great job to come back from a 3-2 deficit after five games, and their 5-0 deficit in the seventh inning last night. But credit for the Angels victory really belongs as much with Dusty Baker.

Baker pitched his worst starter in Game Seven, and stuck with him too long. Worse, he brought in Felix Rodriguez in Game Six. Rodriguez is an excellent pitcher, but he'd pitched in every game through Game Six. Predictably, he gave up the home run to Spiezio that started Anaheim's rally. Baker is a terrific manager, but he made some critical errors in this Series that cost him dearly.

Conversely, the Angels deserve a great deal of credit for hanging in Game Six when it looked out of reach. It wasn't the best Series ever, but it was certainly a very good one, and a fine conclusion to the season.

Now on to the longest months of the year. Bring on February.

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October 24, 2002

Boston Expos?

ESPN reports that Major League Baseball is considering moving the Expos to Boston, at least for the next year. Although I would hate to see the Expos leave Montreal, it's a sad fact that the Montreal fan base isn't big enough to support a major league team. Bringing a National League team back to Boston would be a great thing for the city, even if for just a year. Boston supported two teams for half a century, and it's a bigger town now than it was then. Let's see if Boston can support two teams again.

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October 18, 2002

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

That's right, it's time for the World Series, pitting a Giants team that hasn't won a Series since 1954 (and never in California) against an Angels team that reaches the World Series for the first time in their history.

So who's it going to be? Will Barry carry the Giants to his very first championship, or will the magic of the Angels carry them through this final step?

During the regular season, the Angels faced a tougher schedule, and managed to eke out more wins besides; their division included 103-win Oakland and a Seattle team that won 116 games last year, and 93 more this year. Even the Rangers, the division doormat, were tough opponents. The Giants, conversely, faced off against Arizona and Los Angeles, and got to play Colorado and San Diego besides. Strength of schedule clearly favors the Angels.

In one-run games, the Angels were 31-22, nine games over .500, while the Giants went 28-22, six games over. No clear advantage there. The Angels finished four games behind their expected winning percentage, as did the Giants. Random factors did not seem to overly favor either squad this year, so no advantages.

The Angels had to beat the Yankees to reach the ALCS, but faced by far the weakest playoff opponent in the Twins. The Giants beat the Braves and the Cardinals, both quality clubs but neither as good as the Yankees. Give the Giants a very slight edge here.

The Giants hitting is clearly superior. Including their pitchers, they posted a .344 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage, compared to the Angels' .341 OBP and .433 SLG. Although the numbers may not appear far off, when factoring in the Giants having the pitchers bats against the Angels's DH, the advantage clearly belongs to the Giants.

Pitching, conversely, is the Angels's strength. Pitching in the AL, the Angels staff ERA was 3.69, and they allow 1.28 batters per inning pitched. The Giants posted a 3.54 staff ERA and allowed 1.30 batters per inning pitched. Taking into account league differences, the Angels rate a slight edge.

Taking all this into account, one thing is clear: it should be a very good Series. Anything can happen in a short Series; it's a cliche, but it's absolutely correct. But the Giants appear to rate a very small edge as a team, so if everyone plays to potential, look for the Giants to take home their first World Championship in almost fifty years in seven games.

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October 13, 2002

Halfway There

Congratulations to the Anaheim Angels, who polished off the Twins even faster than I had predicted. Although I'm happy for the Angels, I feel badly for the Twins, whose late inning collapse was painful to watch. The Angels now become the favorites to win the World Series, as they've got a week to prepare and are the best team remaining in the mix. It will be interesting to see who the NL brings out to face them.

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October 09, 2002

League Championship Series

OK, so I didn't do so well in the division series. OK, so I went 0 for 4. Let's get past that, OK? I think it shows a lot of character that I'm willing to post predictions again, after my dismal showing the first time through.

In the ALCS, I think Anaheim is good enough to beat the Twins, despite their loss last night. The Twins will make it tough, but look for the Angels to storm back tonight to even the Series, lose one in Anaheim, then close things out in game six.

In the NLCS, it's a tough call. St. Louis does have the team of destiny look about them, but the Giants are a very good squad, and they do have the best player in baseball. So look for the Giants to do the impossible and win in seven games.

And if you're a betting man, get some money down on the Cards and Twins ASAP.

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September 30, 2002

Awards Time

With the conclusion of the regular season, let's take a look at who should win the MVP and Cy Young awards in the AL and NL.

In the American League, the Cy Young race boils down to three men: Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and Barry Zito. Pedro is almost certainly the best pitcher of the three, leading the AL in ERA and strikeouts. But Zito won 23 games to Pedro's 20, and pitched 30 more innings besides. Having a great pitcher is important, but if you can't get 30 starts out of him, his value is significantly reduced. Barry Zito deserves the AL Cy Young award.

The NL Cy Young is easier. Although Curt Schilling had a great year, Randy Johnson led the NL in wins, strikeouts, innings pitched and ERA. Hands down, Johnson is the Cy Young winner.

Before I address the MVP Awards, I'll point out my philosophy regarding the awards. They are intended to go to the Most Valuable Player in each league by definition; and value is the same regardless of which team on which a player competes. So don't waste my time telling me that a player who outhits everyone else in his league is somewhat less valuable than a good player who plays on a winning team, because any manager would take the better hitter in a walk. If that isn't the definition of value, I don't know what is.

In the American League, Alex Rodriquez is clearly the MVP. Fourth in the AL in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage, an overall hitting metric), first in the AL in home runs and RBIs, and a shortstop to boot? Anyone building a team would be a fool not to grab ARod with their very first pick, because he's the total package. Alfonso Soriano gets an honorable mention, but a second baseman who can't outhit a shortstop can hardly be considered more valuable.

In the National League, the prize goes to Barry Bonds, hands down. His 1.381 OPS is staggering, more than 300 points higher than his next competitor in the NL and 260 points better than another else in the majors. Throw in his 46 homers, 110 RBI and 198 walks, and there's no question who the best player in baseball is. The man is simply amazing, and he will probably go down in history as the best left fielder in the history of the game; an impressive feat, considering names like Musial and Williams once patrolled that beat.

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September 29, 2002

Predictions, Part II

Last month's predictions weren't too far off: I got six of eight playoff teams correct, a respectable score. The one big error on my part was that the strike didn't happen, something I'm pleased to be wrong about. With the playoff matchups set, now I get the chance to really prove myself.

The American League looks like this: Oakland should take the Twins in four, while the Yankees will overcome the Angels in five. It's been a magical year for the Twins, but they're really not as good as they seem, they just play in a lousy division. The Angels are quite possibly a better team than the Yankees, but I think the Yankees will pull out the Division Series nonetheless. Oakland will then win the ALCS in six, as despite the respective records, Oakland is a much superior team, as they have been the past two years. I don't think the Yankees can count on lightning striking for three straight years.

The National League will see the Diamondbacks win against St. Louis, although I think St. Louis may be able to stretch it to five games. Atlanta will beat the Giants in four, although Barry Bonds will finally get his bad playoff rap removed with a good series. St. Louis is a solid team, but I think the D-Backs have enough left in the tank to handle them. Atlanta is the class of the National League this year, although that's not saying much, but they'll be too much for the Giants. Atlanta will then take out the Diamondbacks in six games, as the D-Backs just won't be able to get the job done any longer; they're too old and tired.

The World Series, then, will feature the As and the Braves, and Braves fans will be disappointed again when Oakland brings them down in five games. With all Oakland has overcome in the last few years, they're just going to be too hard to beat. It should be a very fun postseason.

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September 25, 2002

Why I Love Baseball

With five games left in the season, amazingly, the Red Sox are still alive in the wild card race, thanks to the Angels losing streak and a five-game winning streak for Boston. Seattle also came back against Oakland to stay alive in the AL Wild Card race, meaning at least one more day of contention in the AL.

Meanwhile, in the NL, San Francisco is still contending for the NL West, while Arizona struggles to close our their division title and LA still hopes to contend for the wild card.

Granted, most of these races are effectively over at this point; Oakland will win the AL West, Arizona the NL West, and the Angels and Giants will take their respective wild card berths. Probably. Because the one thing that makes baseball a better game than any other is that it's never over. As long as a team can keep batting, it's never out of the game, and as long as the Red Sox and Mariners keep winning, Anaheim will remain under pressure. It looks to be a fun conclusion to the season.

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September 04, 2002

The Almost-Strike; Who Won?

With the strike averted, the question still remains, does the agreement reached by the owners and players favor one side or the other? More importantly, does the agreement help or hurt the fans?

We'll start with the big question, the luxury tax. According to Bud Selig and the rest of the owners (and don't waste my time telling me Selig's not an owner), the luxury tax will improve competitive balance by ensuring the rich teams have to subsidize the small teams if they spend too much. Unfortunately, this assertion doesn't hold water. The last collective bargaining agreement included a luxury tax, and it has done nothing to improve competitive balance. The reason for this is simple. If the rich teams don't exceed the luxury tax, no money goes to the poor teams, so they're behind. If the rich teams do spend enough to be subject to the tax, the money given to the poor teams is insufficient to even allow them to keep pace with the increased payrolls of the rich teams, so the poor teams are even further behind. Better still, the poor teams don't have to spend luxury tax money on payroll. Carl Pohlad, owner of the Minnesota Twins, hasn't spent a dime of luxury tax money on improving his team, instead using it to line his pockets. If the luxury tax was sufficiently high to deter rich teams from subjecting themselves to it, then it might at least keep the gap from growing too far, but as it now stands, it's just a way for the poor teams to collect some extra money from the rich teams while still having little hope of being competitive. The luxury tax was never about competitive imbalance in baseball. It's just a sop to the small-market teams to keep the owners' united.

What about revenue sharing? Here is where the imbalance between large- and small-market teams could really be resolved, but the new agreement doesn't come close. Each team will give just over one-third of it's net local revenue to the pool, to be shared equally among all the teams. That means that the teams that have lucrative local TV deals will keep two-thirds of that money, ensuring a massive disparity between large- and small-market team incomes. A better solution would have been to throw all TV revenue into the pile, and divide it evenly among all the teams. While the large-market clubs would scream bloody murder that such a deal wouldn't be fair, they wouldn't be able to secure such lucrative deals without the rest of the league. Would TBS pay top dollar just to watch the Braves practice? Of course not, they pay to watch the Braves play the Pirates, the Astros, and the rest of the league. Dividing up the TV revenues would be a huge step towards bringing the teams onto a level playing field. But that didn't happen, so imbalance will remain a fact of life for baseball.

The new deal also sets up a $10 million discretionary fund for the commissioner. The less said about that, the better.

The drug testing deal may work, depending on how thorough it is. There will be random testing for steroids next year, and if five percent or more of players test positive, random testing will continue for two more years. If 2.5 percent or less test positive for two consecutive years, random testing will stop, although survey testing will continue. Punishment for a positive test is treatment for the first offense, suspensions for further offenses. If they perform widespread random testing and follow-through on suspensions, the program may succeed. If they have a light regimen of testing, or don't enforce their own standards, then nothing will change.

The draft revisions will be a major step forward. A worldwide draft will give small-market teams at least a shot at drafting non-American stars, a privilege previously reserved for teams with enough money to run training camps overseas. While small-market teams will still be unable to conduct extensive scouting of foreign players, the draft will ensure they get a shot at drafting the best-known prospects ahead of the large-market clubs.

Contraction has been put off for at least four seasons. That is a huge victory for the fans, particularly in Minnesota. Conversely, contraction will be much easier for the owners to accomplish in 2007, so this may be a long-term loss for baseball fans. As I've already noted, competitive balance will not improve because of this deal, and so there will still be teams like Montreal and Tampa Bay in 2007.

Interleague play has been kept, an unfortunate but predictable decision. It's possible the games will be eliminated in the next CBA negotiations, however, as fan interest in them has already dropped markedly from the original highs. With interleague play a yearly fact of life, it will soon become no more remarkable than any other game, and so will not help drive attendance any higher.

The elimination of draft pick compensation for loss of free agents is a significant move, and will damage efforts to improve competive balance further. Previously, teams that signed top free agents lost draft picks, and teams that lost free agents gained draft picks. Although those picks did not in any way balance the loss of the player(s), over the long term teams that grabbed multiple free agents saw their farm systems decline, while teams that lost free agents were able to bolster their farm systems. Without this measure, the rich teams will be able to plunder the poor teams even more effectively than in the past.

Overall, this agreement is a good thing. Had there been a strike, baseball would have suffered severe damage, and might never again have regained the market share it currently enjoys. However, this agreement is not sufficient to stop or even stay baseball's slide. Baseball competes against all other forms of entertainment for the money people are willing to spend for movies, sports, etc. Without competitive balance, baseball has been losing market share for years. Because this agreement does nothing to improve competitive balance, and in fact makes the problem slightly worse, the problem will get worse over the next four seasons, and baseball's market share will drop even faster. The owners and players have kept the sport from collapsing entirely, but their new agreement will only delay baseball's slide towards becoming a minor sport.

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August 19, 2002

Predictions

With little more than a week remaining before the impending baseball strike, I thought I'd offer up my postseason predictions on the off chance the players don't strike.

The division winners are pretty easy calls. As of now, only the AL West and NL Central still have real division races on, with Anaheim a half game behind Seattle and Houston 4 and a half behind St. Louis. And neither Anaheim nor Houston will overtake their rivals. The division winners at the end of the season will be the Yankees, the Twins, the Mariners, the Braves, the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks. The wild card will go to Oakland again in the AL, and to Los Angeles in the NL. Anaheim isn't really as good as their record would indicate, while Oakland is an excellent squad, so I anticipate Oakland securing its third consecutive wild card. LA has San Fransisco not too far behind, but the Dodgers' pitching will be sufficient to keep them in front.

So the first round of the playoffs will feature Oakland vs. New York and Seattle vs. Minnesota in the American League, and LA vs. Atlanta and St. Louis vs. Arizona in the National League. Arizona will eliminate St. Louis in four games. Atlanta will sweep the Dodgers. Seattle will take Minnesota in five games. And Oakland will eliminate the Yankees in four games, as the Yankees' luck finally runs out.

In the League Championship Series, Seattle will beat Oakland in six to head to their very first World Series, while the Braves will avenge last year's loss to the Diamondbacks in seven games.

While Seattle will make a valiant effort, they will fall short in the World Series, as Bobby Cox and company bring home Atlanta's second World Series trophy in six games.

Let's hope the players give me the chance to be proved wrong.

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