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« The Council Speaks | Main | It Was My Understanding There Would Be No Math » January 06, 2007Iran's NukesSimon at Classical Values notes that Iran is apparently facing an energy crunch as their natural gas deliveries to Turkey have dropped off markedly. He correctly notes that this problem, as well as Iran's inability to meet its OPEC quota over the past 18 months, means that Iran is enduring some painful economic times. What he doesn't note, however, is that if this is the case, it bolster's Iran's argument for nuclear power development.Iran is taking a significant economic hit by cutting natural gas delivery to foreign buyers. Given that exports of oil and natural gas are two of Iran's primary industries, when they have to stop selling natural gas to provide for domestic consumption, that's a big deal for their economy. Finding ways to increase their exports, then, is a logical move for the Iranian government, and it places their claims that they're pursuing nuclear power for peaceful uses in a different light. I don't recall seeing any sites that talked about Iran's pursuit of nuclear power take note of the fact they really could use nuclear power to bolster their export industry, although it is certainly possible I simply missed it. I do recall seeing many people ask why Iran would need nuclear power given their oil and gas reserves, however, and this article gives us a pretty good answer. This is not to say that Iran is necessarily being wholly truthful regarding its pursuit of nuclear power. Given the international situation and Iran's relationship with the United States, pursuit of weapons technology is a logical goal for the regime, as only with nuclear weapons can they be certain the United States will not strike at them. But it seems much clearer now that Iran needs nuclear power, even without nuclear weapons, to bolster its economy. This matters, because it means that we cannot simply assume that by dealing with Iran's concerns over external intervention we will eliminate Iran's pursuit of nuclear power. Any solution to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons will have to include not only security guarantees, but assistance with a peaceful nuclear power capability (something that carries with it other problems, as a thriving domestic nuclear industry will give Iran more money to spend on terrorism and other destabilizing activities as well as a convenient means of hiding further pursuit of nuclear weapons). I tend to believe that, in the long term, it will be impossible to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This article suggests that it will be even more difficult than I had originally imagined, because Iran has multiple reasons to continue its pursuit of nuclear technology, meaning it will be that much more difficult to answer all of their concerns. powered by performancing firefox Posted at January 6, 2007 08:57 AM
Comment policyI apologize for only allowing authenticated commenters, but comment spam overwhelms the site if I don't use those measures to prevent it. I reserve the right to delete any comment, although generally comments will only be deleted due to use of profanity or personal attacks on people. I have no objection to vigorous argument, but when name-calling begins, I'm putting a stop to it. In the immortal words of Eugene Levy, "People, people, let's stop this before somebody says something untrue!" If you want to call people names, I recommend you get your own blog. Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsThe extent of Iran's energy problems is far more systemic and chronic than this, and indeed, you might be right that Iran does now have more reasons to justify its pursuit of nuclear power. However, I believe this dearth of revenues from oil and gas would create a new precedent for us, in that it would allow us to have some leverage against Iran. Without the necessary funds and investment (international banks are as of now being persuaded by the US not to accommodate Iran) - and I'm convinced that expertise for them is not a problem whatsoever - to build a viable infrastructure to harness nuclear power, Iran cannot survive in the long-term. Either way you look at it, it's pretty good news for us. Posted by: harrison You make several valid points. We can stipuluate that there's not much that we can do to prevent Iran from going nuclear, although Israel may not have the same perception. And, Iran's weakening economy lends credence to arguments that it needs domestic nuclear power, something that once sounded absurd. Ironically, but for the regime's jihadist ambitions, Iran's difficulties could be ironed out reasonably. After all, economic realism is what the West does best. As harrison suggests, there may be a window of opportunity here. But it will require Iran, at some level, to embrace pragmatism, just as it will require the Bush Administration to recognize the opportunity, should it arise. At some point, will Iran's economic problems compel it to become more pragmatic? Doubtful but it could happen. Regardless, a very nice job of connecting dots, AO. Posted by: ckreiz Very interesting point. This would also explain why Iran will not agree to its enriched uranium supply being supplied by outsiders -- it does not want to become dependent on outsiders for its energy policy. Posted by: dmbeaster Post a commentThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out) (If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.) |
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