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November 08, 2006

Rumsfeld Out

A hypothetical Republicans will be asking a lot in the next few months: had President Bush accepted Secretary Rumsfeld's resignation in October rather than November, would yesterday's Democratic victory have been as strong?

Hypotheticals are fun because they can't be proven, but this one seems pretty reasonable. A factor in the Republican losses yesterday was frustration over the perception the Bush administration wasn't responding to the situation on the ground in Iraq. And Secretary Rumsfeld was at the center of that controversy, a lightning rod for criticism about the administration's policies as the man who ostensibly created and implemented those policies. Had President Bush gotten rid of him earlier, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that might have move enough votes to change a few races, notably those in Montana and Virginia.

In any case, while removing Rumsfeld is a wise decision, it may be too late to matter. With the Democrats basking in their victory, it's difficult to predict how they'll treat nominee Robert Gates during his confirmation hearings. Assuming he is confirmed, will he change course in Iraq, or will the name plate change but the policy remain the same? I am not at all convinced that there is much that we can do in Iraq that will help us succeed at this point, although I do hope that there is. But for this to make any difference, it will have to involve real changes in policy, and not just removing the lightning rod. Think of it this way: if you take the lightning rod off the house, but you continue to live in an area prone to storms, the lightning is just going to hit something else.