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November 28, 2006

Holding the Dike

With the release of an intelligence report on Anbar that suggests the U.S. cannot defeat the insurgency there with anything short of an additional division's worth of troops and many billions of dollars, the U.S. occupation of Iraq continues to look more and more bleak.

There are some snippets of good news to be found. The U.S. forces in Anbar have at least managed to make life better for the citizens of the province than would otherwise be the case, and the Iraqi police forces there have apparently performed better than we could have expected. The flip side of that, however, is that the U.S. forces are unlikely to remain much longer, and in Anbar, as in the rest of Iraq, what happens when the U.S. leaves is likely to be disastrous. That seems to be one of the few rationales left for remaining in Iraq: that if we leave, things will get worse. Jim Henley and Kevin Drum, among others, disagree, claiming that things are getting worse because the U.S. is there. I suspect there is some truth to that, but I think that our presence is also providing some good.

Having said that, it's hard to argue that we should stay indefinitely because we're probably doing some good. A sizable majority of Iraqis want us out within the year, for one thing, and that in and of itself suggests the time has come for us to go. There's also the fact that a nontrivial section of the insurgency will probably lay down its arms once the U.S. leaves. No, the fighting will not end; there will be plenty of other fighting between factions attempting to seize control of the government. But it would be foolish to pretend that our presence in Iraq isn't infuriating for a section of the insurgency, both Iraqis who want their country unsullied by an occupying force and foreign fighters who see the U.S. as the Great Satan and just want to take a shot at U.S. fighters.

I'm quite sympathetic to the 'Pottery Barn' rule; there's no question we broke Iraq, and we bear responsibility for the disaster it has become. But if we can't fix it, staying there simply because it's our fault doesn't help anyone. The little Dutch boy saved his town because other people came along and fixed the problem once they realized his finger was preventing disaster. If other people hadn't fixed the underlying problem, the end of the story would have been the little boy drowning when the dike finally collapsed. Nobody is coming along to fix Iraq no matter how long we keep our finger in the dike.


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Posted at November 28, 2006 07:38 AM

Andrew Olmsted

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Comments

Of course the story about the Dutch boy is American fiction, someone painting her own distorted picture of the Netherlands, lacking knowledge of how the systems actually work. Hansje Brinkers is actually only known to Dutch people who heard about him from foreigners. In reality it is not one miracle worker who saves the dykes, it is hard work and lots of planning from people knowing their business.

So the analogy might be more apt than you realized when you used it...

Posted by: Dutchmarbel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2006 01:21 PM

Heh. I had assumed the story was a fable, but that's an interesting take on the tale.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2006 01:24 PM

The struggle against water shaped our society and had a hugh impact on our political history and culture. Our consensus society is based in having to cooperate to fight the water - and you cannot fight water with brutal force. Planning and knowledge are much more usefull.

If you need a water analogy for Iraq I'm afraid the Titanic is more appropriate than Hansje Brinkers. We do agree that staying isn't the best option, but just jumping of the boat is denying the responsibility you bear.

Posted by: Dutchmarbel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2006 02:47 PM

Well, I wouldn't say I 'need' a water analogy for Iraq. The dike analogy simply seemed most appropriate: the U.S. forces are the finger in the dike holding back the tide of full-scale civil war, but unless something happens to either repair the dike or reduce the force of the sea, all we're doing is delaying the inevitable.

As for jumping out of the boat (or, to continue the dike analogy, pulling out our finger and running for higher ground), I'm open for suggestions on what to do next. But the fact is that we are leaving, sooner or later, and while the ensuing carnage will certainly be our responsibility, I'm not sure what else we can do.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2006 02:59 PM

you forgot the bit where you made the hole in the dike. I thought you were looking for lightning when you made it...

Acknowledge blame, save as many people as can be, help those who know the area better, punish the people who did really bad things, make sure the war profeteering money is taken from the fat purses and given to the rebuilding efforts, make amends where possible (without checking for own profit first).

Unfortunately, once the ship is sinking, you cannot magically make it whole again. But currently the emphasis seems to be mainly on shifting blame and trying to safe possesions.

Posted by: Dutchmarbel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 28, 2006 03:23 PM

The problem with the sinking ship metaphor is that it fails to adequately address the real problems in Iraq. If a ship is sinking, at some point it will sink, and you've saved what you've saved. But, barring a genocidal war in Iraq, Iraq is not going to slip beneath the waves and vanish from sight. When we leave, life will go on for those left behind. If we leave badly, Iraq may vanish from view in the media, but the problems will remain.

As for helping those who know the area better, I fail to see what this will accomplish without our might behind it. Like it or not, without U.S. support the world doesn't act to solve problems. Rwanda and Darfur spring to mind, as does the former Yugoslavia prior to U.S. involvement. As lovely as it would be to turn Iraq over to someone who knows the area better, I'm curious who you think could fill that role and what they might accomplish.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2006 11:08 AM

I saw the Titanic as the US invasion/presence, and the Iceberg as Iraq.

The US presence currently does not achieve anything. They don't stop the killing and mass murder either. Normally I'd say that at least withdrawing might make it possible to direct resources at for instance Afghanistan, where it might not be too late to achieve some good. However with this administration there's just not much that can be achieved I'm afraid. Your country voted morons in power and the ones who voted for Bush in 2004 should at least feel their accountibility.

The US was the only real superpower and as such not a lot will be accomplished without it's support. But I'm not terribly impressed with your examples. Rwanda: more an example of how the US used it's political power (UN SC) to stop interventions. Most usefull thing the US did was give (monetairy) aid and that is not the area the US excells in. Dafur: best thing US did (kudo's to Bush actually) was use diplomacy to have parties sign peace accords. Again (and unfortunately) not an area the US excells in which is a shame because it could actually make more of a difference in many area's I think. Yugoslavia: one of the reasons Europe was parallized was that the US has worked long and hard to make sure they didn't have an European force. Role of Nato is another discussion though. What didn't help was that quite a few influential countries in Europe really wanted the political break-up, and thus were slow to intervene anyway. US wants Nato, which they have much more impact on, to take the lead - and Nato will not respond without the US.

And I didn't say 'turn over to', I said help the ones that know more.

Posted by: Dutchmarbel [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2006 02:48 PM

The US presence currently does not achieve anything.

Wow...really? So if we pulled out tomorrow, it's your opinion things would not get a fraction worse, because the U.S. presence isn't accomplishing anything now?

Your country voted morons in power and the ones who voted for Bush in 2004 should at least feel their accountibility.

For someone who complains that there's too much attempting to avoid blame on Iraq, you seem remarkably eager to make sure you're able to fix the blame where you want it.

the US has worked long and hard to make sure they didn't have an European force

Cite? That sounds, well, wrong to me. Europe has been living off the U.S.'s commitment to defense for decades. I'm not aware of any attempts by the U.S. to stop Europe from improving their military capabilities, and I suspect you aren't, either.

I didn't say 'turn over to', I said help the ones that know more.

Does this mean anything, or is it just a motherhood statement? Who do you have in mind? What would you suggest we do beyond platitudes?

As for the examples I cited, I'm afraid you misunderstood me. My point was not that the U.S. had done anything good in Rwanda or Darfur, but to point out that because the U.S. never got involved, nobody else did either.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 29, 2006 02:56 PM

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