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August 30, 2006

Red Sox 2007

Yes, I realize I've been something of a ghost of late. My apologies; between having to play acting battalion commander for ten days, finishing up a course in my MBA program, and preparing for the transfer of responsibility for our mission here at Fort Riley to the 1st Infantry Division, it's been hectic of late. On the plus side, tomorrow I get to go home to enjoy Labor Day with my wife. So life is good.

Although it would be a lot better if the Sox hadn't forgotten that we play 162 games these days, and not 122. I think it's safe to say that the bloom is off Theo's rose at this point, as the 2004 championship is looking a lot like a fluke rather than a true expression of the abilities of Epstein and Francona. I'm still of the opinion that the Sox ought to dump Terry; no, this year's disaster would have happened with or without him, but that doesn't change the fact he's a mediocre manager. But Boston's woes go well beyond him.

So, since we're in 'wait 'til next year mode,' what do we need for next year? Quite a bit. Pitching-wise, we have three starters we can count on next year: Schilling, Beckett, and Lester. Wakefield may come back as well, so that would round out the rotation to four, although Schilling and Wakefield are both pretty good bets to go down to injury, given their age. Clement may be back, but given the production he's given us the last two years, I'm not sure anyone really wants to see him back in a Boston uniform. Still, he's under contract, so the Sox could have a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield and Clement next year. That's not confidence-inspiring. It would help a lot if they went with Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, Wakefield. Yes, it means we have to find a closer, but Papelbon isn't Mariano Rivera, so the Sox may as well put someone else on the back end and get 200+ innings out of that arm. Then they just need to find a closer and probably two other good arms to go with Foulke, Delcarmen and Hansen.

Hitting-wise, the Sox obviously need some work. Right now they look like this: Varitek and Mirabelli behind the plate, Youklis, Loretta and Lowell around the diamond, and Ramirez, Crisp and Pena in the outfield. That's not good. At a minimum, we need a new shortstop (although I'd be happy to keep Gonzalez for his glove if we can get a few bigger hitters elsewhere. Varitek isn't the Tek of old, and Mirabelli's best years are behind him as well, so the Sox need to find a good catcher they can start training to take over the position. Get him early and have him catch Wakefield every minute he can spare, but don't keep Mirabelli around just because he can catch Wake. The Bard deal was a disaster for the Sox (imagine if they still had Cla Meredith in their bullpen); they need to find a good backup catcher and deal with whatever troubles he may have with Wake. The Sox also need a new third baseman; Lowell has been better than could be expected, but he's not getting any younger and the Sox desperately need to. Youkilis should be the solution at first for some time to come, and adding Pedroia to the mix as second should put the Sox in a good position for the future. In the outfield, I think the Sox are probably going to have to let Trot go; I hate to say that, but while he's a terrific player when he's healthy, he hasn't been healthy for at least three years. Unless he's willing to sign cheap, the Sox need to see if Pena can handle being an every day right fielder.

The more I look at the Sox, the less I think of Epstein. Supposedly the Sox are built for the future, but I don't see them being much better next year than they are this year. I think the Yankees' stranglehold on the AL East is going to last a lot longer than we'd like to think.