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August 08, 2006

Baghdad!=Stalingrad

I thought I'd take a look at one of the issues hilzoy raised last week: the vulnerability of the U.S. Army in Iraq to having its supplies cut off. In particular I'll be looking at Billmon's Losing an Army and Patrick Lang's piece on U.S. supply lines in Iraq. I should begin with a few disclaimers. I have not been to Iraq, so my opinions on this are based on my general military experience. I have served all of my time in the Army at Brigade level and below, so grand strategy is something I've never been involved with. I will also not reveal anything I do know about Army capabilities that is not in the public domain.

The current fighting in Lebanon has severely degraded the U.S. position in Iraq. If there is one thing that unites Arabs from Egypt to Iraq, it's hatred of Israel. The perception that Israel is hammering away at defenseless Lebanese has fanned the flames of that hatred. Because the U.S. is justifiably seen as Israel's patron, Israel's actions reflect poorly on the U.S. as well, and this past week we saw demonstrations in Iraq that looked like they could have come from Iran. Our good, dear friend Moqtada al-Sadr is threatening to send elements of his Mahdi Army to Lebanon to fight the Israelis, and Ayatollah al-Sistani has spoken up to warn the U.S. that its support for Israel could cost it dearly in Iraq. While the situation is not yet beyond repair, there are signs that Iraq's Shia majority might just turn against the U.S. If that event occurs, the U.S. will have to shift its focus from stopping the violence to force protection.

As Billmon and Lang note, the U.S. Army in Iraq currently depends on ground transport to provide it with the supplies it needs to keep its various Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) running. To date, the Iraqis have generally left those convoys alone, but they represent by far the most vulnerable aspect of the American presence in Iraq. Iraqi attempts to storm U.S. FOBs would have poor chances for success, but blocking the roads could accomplish much the same thing without the need to risk thousands of Iraqi lives. With the roads shut down, the U.S. would quickly run short of supplies and would have to shift its focus to force protection.

As I noted above, such a shift in the fight would mark the end of any U.S. attempts to support the Iraqi government. Facing the threat of losing most of the ~135,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, U.S. leaders would have to worry about either consolidating U.S. forces into a few, easily defended FOBs, or extracting them completely from Iraq. Since, in either case, we would no longer be able to conduct counterinsurgency (COIN) operations, that would mark an end to the U.S.'s ability to influence events in Iraq.

Given that fact, a Shia uprising in Iraq would probably result in a U.S. withdrawal to Kuwait and a massive blow to U.S. credibility regarding force of arms. I think Billmon markedly overestimates the chances of losing the Army itself. Faced with that threat, the rules of engagement would loosen up drastically. Resupply planes would be preceded by suppression of enemy air defense missions (SEAD) that would devastate any potential SAM sites that might be used to take shots at U.S. aircraft. We would likely see AC-130 gunships utilized to clear corridors for American troops to move along in order to extract our forces. U.S. artillery, which has generally been highly constrained due to fears of causing more damage in PR than it could inflict in enemy casualties, would be unleashed against concentrations of enemy forces.

The results would be devastating. For those who think the Israeli actions in Lebanon have been horrid, the results of a U.S. fighting withdrawal from Iraq would be orders of magnitude worse. U.S. forces would, by and large, be able to get out of the country, but they would leave thousands if not tens of thousands of Iraqi dead behind.

This ought to make it quite clear that the U.S. cannot afford such an outcome. Whatever good U.S. forces have accomplished in Iraq over the past three years would be completely destroyed. Our enemies would have a massive victory they could use to rally more fighters to their cause. Iraq itself would not only devolve into chaos, but we would have an inordinate amount of blood on our hands. Whatever mistakes this administration has made thus far, they simply must find a way to avoid inciting the Shiites against the U.S. The alternative is too terrible to contemplate.