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July 11, 2006

Leaving Well Enough Alone

In a move that should not have surprised anyone, China has stated its opposition to sanctions against North Korea. While this move may have been necessary for us to demonstrate support for our allies, Japan and South Korea, it seems to me that putting this kind of focus on North Korea is simply playing into their hands.

For whatever reason, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il likes to draw attention to himself. So every few years he fires a few missiles, and suddenly North Korea is in the papers again. The question we should be asking, however, is whether or not North Korea actually poses a threat to us that would require us to do what Kim wants and react.

It's not impossible that Kim is actually a lunatic who is willing to risk almost-certain death by actually striking U.S. soil with a missile or using a nuclear weapon against us. (I discussed this in my inaugural Obsidian Wings post.) But I think the odds of this being the case are fairly low. Kim has managed to hold onto power for over a decade now, and I don't think a crazy person would be likely to do that. If he was truly insane, I think some other North Korean would have moved against him, and they would have almost certainly been successful, since Kim's mania would have provided him plenty of cover to prepare a coup. So I think fears that Kim is really insane are overblown. If that's the case (and I'll concede it's a theory, not a fact), then Kim isn't really much of a threat unless we give him reason to believe that striking us would be less risky than leaving us alone. Like, say, threatening to launch a preemptive strike against his country. Barring that, reacting to his provocations only encourages him to continue them, because they give him the attention he seems to crave.

North Korea is in dire shape. Were it not for the aid various nations provide to it every year, the vast majority of North Koreans would starve to death in a matter of months. A nation that dependent on outside aid is simply not that big a threat to us, even if they do have nuclear weapons (which they've never tested, so there's no way of knowing if they'll even be effective). The best thing we can do with North Korea is to let their neighbors take the lead in dealing with them, providing support to our allies in the region so they don't feel they have to worry about being left alone to face the threat. Beyond that, let's leave them alone and not give Kim any reasons to think his provocations will get him what he wants.