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May 26, 2006

Time for a Change

What's the difference between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers? Obviously they're separated by 3.5 and 5 games in the standings respectively, but why? (Duh...the Red Sox aren't as good. Go to the head of the class.) More precisely, are there any obvious reasons why the Red Sox can't seem to get any separation between themselves and the rest of the AL East? One springs immediately to mind to anyone following the Red Sox closely, I'll bet: the starting rotation.

Boston's top three starters match up against any in the American League. Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield have combined for 20 quality starts in 30 starts to date. That is one more than the White Sox' top three of Buehrle, Garcia and Contreras and as many as the Tigers' Verlander, Bonderman and Rogers. The problem is that for Boston, that's about their only source of quality starts: in the fifteen games not started by the Red Sox front three, they have three quality starts. Detroit has gotten ten quality starts in 18 games not started by their top three. Chicago has ten quality starts in 20 games not started by their top three. That's a huge difference, and it probably accounts for a sizable fraction of the difference in the teams.

So where do we look to fix this discrepancy? Granted, the Red Sox have been hurt by the loss of David Wells, who has started only one best-forgotten game thus far in 2006, and Lenny DiNardo, his replacement, has been minimally effective at best. But there's one other slot in the Boston rotation that has been healthy all year; he just hasn't pitched like it. Yes, Matt Clement, Theo Epstein's replacement for Derek Lowe, has managed a whopping three quality starts in nine games this year, a rate of 33%. That's just not getting the job done, and it's killing the Red Sox. Looking at Clement's stats, we see that the average batter against him is hitting .324 against him, with a .425 on-base percentage and a .456 slugging percentage, an .879 OPS. The hitter currently matching that stat: Kevin Mench, of the Texas Rangers. I don't think I'm alone in suggesting that when the average opposition hitter is Kevin Mench, you can expect to give up a lot of runs. And Clement has obliged, giving up 38 runs (36 earned) in his nine starts. Throw in his 51 innings in those nine starts and this is the hole the Red Sox put themselves in every time they send Clement to the mound: he'll give up 4.2 runs in 5.2 innings. So in an average Clement start, you've got to score five runs and get perfect bullpen work for 3.1 innings to win. It's a wonder he's only 4-4, a testament to the number of runs the Sox have scored for him.

Of course, you can't replace someone with no one, and with Bronson Arroyo now wearing a Reds uniform and Wells still a question mark, the Sox are a little light in the starting pitching department. They do have two starters down at Pawtucket who might fit the bill, however: Abe Alvarez and Jon Lester. Lester is expected to be a horse, so the Red Sox may be reluctant to bring him up, but that still leaves Alvarez. No, he's not going to set the league on fire, but it's hard to imagine he'll be any worse than Clement has been this year, and he won't cost $9 million a year. Granted, the Sox are stuck paying Clement's salary unless they can convince another team to take him off their hands, but just because they have to pay him, it doesn't mean they have to play him.

If David Wells is capable of starting with minimal effectiveness, it's time for the Red Sox to look elsewhere. Alvarez deserves a chance to show that he can outpitch Clement, because the Red Sox are not going far this season with a fourth starter who makes the average batter look better than Alex Rodriguez.