|
|
|
« Pointless Political Tricks | Main | Strange Values and the Draft » March 22, 2006The Breakup ContinuesShamed into it by the mighy Enrak, a few words on the Red Sox's decision to send pitcher Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for outfielder Wily Mo Pena. This is a trade that is difficult to assess, as neither player has yet to establish a consistent level of performance. Arroyo set career highs in innings and wins last year, his first as a full-time part of Boston's rotation. He's relatively young and has good stuff, if not overpowering. On the other hand, he was knocked around in some important games last year, and my personal impression of him is that he's not particularly mentally tough. While Bronson is remembered for plinking Alex Rodriguez in 2004, sparking the brawl that helped launch the Sox to their World Championship, the plain fact is ARod caused that brawl by being a punk. Arroyo had no intention of hitting him, and proved it by failing to pitch inside to ARod ever since. Given the importance of pitching inside to successful pitching, that mental issue makes me question if Arroyo can ever harness his stuff to become a real A-level starter. His decision to stay out late playing in his band the night prior to his start kicking off the second half of last season also leads me to question his judgement. Pena, on the other hand, has a huge upside potential but who knows if he can realize that potential. To date he's a human fan, striking out an inordinate number of times when he's played. Yes, he's got good power, but the Red Sox don't need another Rob Deer, especially when Pena, unlike Deer, also doesn't walk much. Unless Pena learns to control the strike zone, he's not going to be a star. Is the potential there? Sure, a 24-year old who can play Major League Baseball is a valuable commodity. But he's got a long ways to go to make this deal a winner for the Sox. Bottom line: it's too early to tell. My heart hates to see Arroyo leave, as the core of the 2004 team is down to less than half-a-dozen players, but my head says wait and see. This may turn out to be a great deal for the Sox. On the other hand, it may turn out to be another chink in the armor of the sainted Theo Epstein. Obviously, I'm hoping for the former, but I'm curious how much sabrmetric analysis the Sox braintrust put into this deal Posted at March 22, 2006 09:31 AM
Comment policyI apologize for only allowing authenticated commenters, but comment spam overwhelms the site if I don't use those measures to prevent it. I reserve the right to delete any comment, although generally comments will only be deleted due to use of profanity or personal attacks on people. I have no objection to vigorous argument, but when name-calling begins, I'm putting a stop to it. In the immortal words of Eugene Levy, "People, people, let's stop this before somebody says something untrue!" If you want to call people names, I recommend you get your own blog. Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsThat was pretty much my read. Not sure how much sabremetrics will help you with a guy like Willy Mo Pena. He's only 24, and he has not had the same at bats as a standard 24 year old. For me, even if it does not work out, I'm not sure how much we lost. I don't think Bronson will even be someone I'll be comfortable putting in a post-season game. His real value was in a trade. Whether we could have got someone better than Willy Mo, I don't know. Certainly gives us some leverage with Trot Nixon at the end of the season though. (Assuming Trot Nixon is still playing at the end of the season.) Posted by: Enrak at March 23, 2006 07:14 AM Post a commentThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out) (If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.) |
