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« Rethinking the Draft II | Main | Rocky Mountain Blogger Bash v4.0 » March 14, 2005If Nominated, She Will Not WinJeralyn Merritt of TalkLeft, posting at Vodkapundit while Steve Hillary has already run for office once and won. She will have to do so again next year if she's to be a viable candidate in 2008. That doesn't immunize her against issues that may arise in the primary campaign or the general election, but it does mean that she's at least been through the wringer a few times. Add in the experience she gained running through President Clinton's two runs, and she's a formidable candidate. She knows the pitfalls of presidential politics as well as anyone alive, and she will use that knowledge to her advantage. Rice, on the other hand, has never been elected dogcatcher. While she has seen certain aspects of presidential politics in President Bush's two runs, she was a foreign policy advisor, not a political advisor. She simply isn't as familiar with how the game is played as Hillary. Even if Rove runs her campaign, I'm not convinced the two of them are a match for Hillary and her team. Further, as I've observed before, Rice is going to get hammered when her views become public. Already her admission she's 'mildly pro-choice' is being offered up as a possible deal-breaker for the Republican nomination, an assessment it's difficult to dispute. The Republican Party may be marginally more open to pro-choice voices than the Democrats are to pro-life voices, but when it comes to the name on the top of the ticket, I don't see them being as open-minded. This doesn't even delve into the question of what interesting scandals may lurk in Rice's background. She probably has no serious skeletons in her closet after going through the Senate confirmation process twice, but as pols like Senator Joe Biden can attest, it doesn't take a real scandal to bring down a candidacy. If the Democrats can demonstrate the Rice is a liar over the Iraq issue or raise some lesser issue to prominence, she could go down in flames in short order. It only takes one: just ask Mike Dukakis about Willie Horton sometime. Rice is a political cipher people can project their own opinions onto as long as she's SecState. The minute she throws her hat into the ring, her support starts to dissolve as her positions become clear. If she does decide to run, she'll only get the nomination if the President clears the way for her, and perhaps not even then. Against Hillary, I think Rice goes down. That doesn't mean I wouldn't strongly consider supporting her in 2008, however. Posted at March 14, 2005 04:39 PM
Comment policyI apologize for only allowing authenticated commenters, but comment spam overwhelms the site if I don't use those measures to prevent it. I reserve the right to delete any comment, although generally comments will only be deleted due to use of profanity or personal attacks on people. I have no objection to vigorous argument, but when name-calling begins, I'm putting a stop to it. In the immortal words of Eugene Levy, "People, people, let's stop this before somebody says something untrue!" If you want to call people names, I recommend you get your own blog. Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsI want the Repubs to nominate Jeb Bush and the Dems to nominate Hillary. Let's have real dynastic politics to go with our empire, dammit! Posted by: Jim Henley at March 14, 2005 09:35 PM My thinking lately has been Jeb/Condi. I don't see that former Senators have all that great a track record running for the top spot in recent times. I suspect the Hillabeast has a mean streak that makes Bob Dole seem positively benign. Posted by: JSAllison at March 15, 2005 08:46 AM I don't see it happening for Rice. I still think that any bump she gets from moderates and even Dems for being a woman and a minority, she loses almost as much for the same reasons. I think the same happens to Hillary. Sure she sounds good on paper with her last name and such, but when it comes to the booth, how many men are going to choose her? There are still men out there who will use the stupid line that once a month we would have to take the nuclear codes away from them. I hope they do end up being the nominees because I think that would be the best chance for a 3rd party candidate to compete. Posted by: Scott at March 15, 2005 04:46 PM So many other countries have had female presidents/prime ministers – such as England, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, India, the Philippines, and even Muslim countries like Pakistan and Turkey. It’s really sad that so many people think it can't happen here, and sadder yet that they might be right.
Posted by: Heather at March 16, 2005 07:17 AM I'm with Heather. It would be fascinating to finally have a woman President. I would not vote for Hillary because of her desire to take over and run the medical system in this country as well as her other tendencies to take over as much as possible of other peoples decision making in their lives. On the other hand, we know next to nothing about Dr. Rice's real political positions. What I have seen makes her at least someone who should run. How about Sen. Hutchinson of Texas? She's been elected twice and seems to have done a good job in the Senate. I suspect that there are a lot of other good candidates out there once the party starts seriously looking around. What we need to see are more women who are active in politics and electable to governorships in major states. Governors are much better trained to head up a bureaucracy [sp?] than most senators. They've had to put up with it at the state level and know how to work with legislatures. How about running for office Heather? Posted by: wes at March 16, 2005 08:00 AM Have you seen the size of my skeleton closet? I'm pretty much unelectable... but on the bright side, if I ran for office Andy could make some money selling stories about me to the Enquirer. Posted by: Heather at March 16, 2005 09:26 AM Forget gender and ethnicity. What on earth has Rice ever accomplished politically that makes anyone think she's qualified to run for President? Posted by: Anne at March 16, 2005 05:02 PM Wes, between 2008 and 2014, a gov't paid health care program will be passed by Congress. Even if the Hillary-haters are the majority. She was just about 20 years early for the boomers. Rice would do better to break out on her own in two years. As I've said here before, I think Karl will run both Jeb and Condi - they'll get all the attention. Kay Bailey is going to take on Gov. Perry for 2006, probably not enough for a 2008 race. Like Condi, she's probably playing for the VP spot. I don't think she'll do well nationally - we always thought of her as our Elizabeth Dole. Not somebody you could get excited about. Posted by: Steve at March 16, 2005 05:28 PM Post a commentThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out) (If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.) |