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February 19, 2005

Rice in '08

If there's one thing that symbolizes what's annoying with American politics, it's the horse race aspect. We're four months removed from our last election and already we're talking about who the front-runners are in 2008. Captain Ed notes a rumor that Condi Race will replace Dick Cheney as Vice President in 2006 to set her up for a run in 2008, a longtime fantasy of quite a few people on the right. Unfortunately, it's going to remain a fantasy.

Running for President is hard work. Not only is there a significant physical toll involved in visiting umpteen towns a day, shaking hundreds of hands a day, and rarely if ever getting enough rest, politics is a very rough and tumble business. Newcomers tend to have a hard time in presidential politics. Ask Wes Clark, who brought great name recognition and solid military credentials to a party sorely in need of both and who managed to eke out a single primary victory. As Michael Dukakis discovered in 1988, your opponents will use anything they can find in your past to bring you down, as Al Gore tried and George Bush succeeded with Willie Horton. If you haven't run for office before, the odds of your having something in your past that can be properly framed to make you look bad is pretty good. I don't know what they might dig up on Rice, but past history suggests that the rose they pin on you doesn't even necessarily have to be all that accurate to sink your chances.

Then there's the question of just how much Rice is willing to endure to be President. Some people have already hammered her on race during her hearings to become SecState. Imagine what they'll bring out if she's running for President. Remember, it is the avowed belief of a disturbing number of people that it's impossible for minorities to be racist and that minorities who don't toe the party line aren't 'authentic.' It will therefore be open season on Condi if she shows presidential ambitions, and as tough as she is, I don't know how many people would be willing to stand up to that kind of thing. There were many outstanding black ballplayers playing in 1946. Branch Rickey could have signed some bigger names (at the time) than Jackie Robinson to break the color barrier. But Rickey understood that he needed not only a nonpareil ballplayer, but a man with the fortitude to endure racism of the worst order. Rice wouldn't face anything as bad as Jackie did, but she'd still endure enough that few could blame her if she'd rather not step into that arena.

Condi Rice is standing in the same shoes Colin Powell occupied in the late 1990s. A lot of Republicans would love to see Rice run because they think running a strong black candidate would help eliminate the stereotype of Republicans as racists. Because Rice's views have always been subordinated to the administrations she's worked in, Republicans can project their own views onto her, giving her the appearance of a much stronger candidate than she really is. Once she throws her hat into the ring and starts announcing her actual positions, she's going to start looking a lot less appealing to people. Not necessarily so much so that she wouldn't be a viable candidate; all candidates have views their supporters don't hold. But in Rice's case she would face the problem of disillusioning almost all of her supporters in some way right off the bat as her views emerged.

Could Rice be a successful Presidential candidate? Perhaps, but probably not if it's the first race she runs. Making her the VP probably wouldn't hurt the Republicans much anyhow, as the Democrats are likely to have the edge going into the 2008 race after eight years of George Bush, but it would be neither their best bet for holding onto the Oval Office nor Rice's best career move following her tour as SecState.

Posted at February 19, 2005 10:20 AM

Andrew Olmsted

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Comments

Depends on where George feels his loyalties lie. And in the Bush clan, the family comes first.
If Cheney leaves, he will be replaced by another lame-duck, not the heir apparent.

In foreign policy, while Condi is not the policy creator, I don't see any evidence that she's ever been out of step in any way. So as long as "freedom" building is still a popular policy, no problem there. If the current policies consequences become a liability, she'll be vulnerable.

That leaves domestic policy. And she has no experience in that. That's not all bad, in that she has no voting history, and can be as vague as any other presidential candidate. And if anyone roughs her up, she can do her impugning credability routine. Karl could probably manage it, but she will never poll as well as Colin.

I suspect we'll see something very different in 2008. Why run one candidate when you can run two? Jeb and Condi will both run, with the goal of helping Jeb against any other major players. The media will eat it up. She'll talk about mushroom clouds while Jeb talks about values. She's weak in domestic policy, while Jeb is weak in foreign policy. It's a match made in Karl's heaven.

I really hope the populace doesn't fall for it. By then, two families would have controled the WH for 20 years. That ought to give anyone pause.

Posted by: Steve at February 19, 2005 01:07 PM

I have been talking about Rice in '08 since last Summer, so I have had time to figure out why. The fear we on the right have is that there is no one to follow George Bush. There are a great number of strong Republicans out there, but most of us don't know about anyone until the MSM brings them up.

Since my last Summer Giulliani/Rice kick, I still think Rice would make a good VP, but for president, I would prefer someone like Jon Kyle.

Posted by: Joel (No Pundit Intended) [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 19, 2005 07:51 PM

Isn't she single? I can just imagine rumors of homosexuality coming from both sides if that is the case.

I don't know who either party will run, but see no real frontrunners.

Posted by: Scott at February 21, 2005 02:11 PM

In politics even when they can't find anything they make up shit to use against you. For example John McCain in 2000 won the New Hampshire primary and was going strong until South Carolina primary. What happened? Rove used a tactic called push polling in which pollers would call people and ask them what they thought about McCain having fathered a child with a black woman out of wedlock? Of course this isn't true he adopted a child with his wife but to the bigots who got the call this was a nail in McCain's coffin and McCain never new what hit him. If I were McCain I never would have forgiven Rove or Bush for what they did. McCain could have been a very good president but he never realize the dirty tactics Rove and company were willing to use against him or opponents of Bush.

Posted by: Tim at February 22, 2005 03:21 PM

Forget about Rice - she supports affirmative action, and that means she's not a conservative. That's what sunk Colin Powell's campaign. He did OK while he kept his mouth shut in the early going to let consensus build behind him. He seemed appealing, and I wanted to know more about what he thought. Of course the time came when he had to state his positions, and it was obvious he's a bluesuit liberal. He even said of himself, “I’m sort of a Rockefeller Republican.” Game over.

Beware these blank-slate types. Sometimes they're neither of the Right nor the Left, and are simply void. Remember Liddy Dole's candidacy? She had no positions of any kind, and in the end was reduced to playing the gender card to try to line up some support. Mrs. Dole would be a wonderful public face for an NGO. Conference, convene, position, declare, preside. But lead? Sometimes it's just not there.


Here’s the tale of one of Rice's first foul-ups. $2 says she’s as natural born a beltway insider as any George Tenet or Norm Mineta.

Posted by: Lastango [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 23, 2005 12:38 AM

I'm somewhat surprised that you didn't bring up the idea that she would be attacked just based on her lack of depth and inability to articulate anything but her boss's lines. I've seen Condi in person, and I was very underwhelmed. She may be smart, but she refuses to show any original thoughts or leadership (and her tenure on the NSC certainly confirms that).

I don't think the race card will come up, it's not an issue (at least for Dems). As a Dem, I would have gladly voted for Colin Powell, and I think there would be a lot of crossovers to support Powell. Not for Rice. We don't have to rehash her "mushroom cloud" story about Iraq, there are lots of examples where we can "question whether her passion for loyalty overrode her passion for the truth." I doubt having her on the ticket would eliminate the Repub's "racist" attitude, ask Bobby Erlich in MD how having a conservative black lieutenant has helped the Repub party in that state.

You know how certain blogs have noted how the Repubs just love having Dean as a lead political Dem as future bait? Imagine the salivating the Dems are doing with Repubs throwing out Rice's name as Prez/Vice Prez. It would be easy, so easy, to rip her apart and would not require any race-baiting at all. I doubt the Dems would lose any votes from their 92+ percent of the black community at all.

Posted by: J. at February 24, 2005 07:58 AM

Your partisan biases are clouding your judgement. The Democrats will use Rice's race in a heartbeat, just as they tried to smear Bush/Cheney with Cheney's daughter's sexuality. It's not about principle for either party, it's about winning. That's what parties are for. If you believe Democrats won't try to piggyback on racism to bring down a Republican candidate, you are deluding yourself.

Posted by: Andrew at February 24, 2005 08:22 AM

Smear Bush/Cheney with Cheney's daughter sexuality
I think it is your biases that are showing, not J's. How was this a smear? Smears are out-right lies, misleading half-truths or dredging up irrelevant embarrasements.


Cheney's daughter's sexuality is an open fact, so the only I could think you could be objecting to is that it is the dredging up of an irrelevant family shame. So do you think that Cheney is ashamed of his daughter? Do you think he should be? Unless you do, the only embarrasement to Cheney is a very indirect tweak over how he silently tolerates the anti-homosexual rhetoric of too many of his supporters.


In fact, when this was first brought up in the VP debates, Cheney thanked Edwards for his kind words. Only after Kerry mentioned the fact (I believe weeks later), did Bush/Cheney suddenly (and seemingly cynically) decide this was a mortal insult.

Posted by: Peter Moore [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 14, 2005 02:33 AM

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