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« Metrics | Main | Samarra Aftermath » December 09, 2003The Jobs ShiftAmong the numerous things that are being touted as serious problems in modern society, the flight of certain types of jobs overseas certainly must rank fairly highly. There seems to be a growing fear that America is in trouble because certain jobs are moving overseas where they can be done more cheaply without a significant sacrifice in quality. Fortunately, we're still a long ways from the collapse of western civilization due to job flight, most of all because the economy is a very dynamic system. While it's true there may be very few manufacturing jobs in America in 20 years, it does not necessarily follow that there will be massive unemployment because those jobs no longer exist, because people will find new things to do. Arnold Kling talks about a few of the jobs that will probably thrive long after the manufacturing jobs are gone. While his specific predictions may not all pan out as hoped, the larger point remains true. 50 years ago nobody worked as a computer programmer, yet today there are literally millions of them. 50 years from now, there will millions of new jobs that we haven't even thought of yet. Will there be disruptions along the way? Almost certainly. But we can at least smooth out those problems if we spend more time focusing on what the job market needs and how we can fill that need than by complaining that the government isn't doing enough to solve the problem.Posted at December 9, 2003 03:46 PM
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Say you're a startup. You're looking for funding to grow the firm. The venture capitalists you're going to talk to are going to be very interested in having you do your hiring overseas, so that their money goes as far as possible. *Any* new job category is likely to move overseas ASAP, if it is possible to move it. The companies doing the hiring are going to be trying to figure out, from day one, how to move Pretty much by definition, any new job category will be new, so there won't be a big reservoir of qualified job applicants in the US. That being the case, we would have no advantage over other countries, so why not start out hiring in other countries to save money? Posted by: Jon H at December 13, 2003 12:35 AM I recommend you read the Kling article I linked to; as it points out, the majority of new jobs will be those that can't be moved overseas. There are many jobs that simply can't be outsourced, and it will be in these areas where we see the job growth. Posted by: Andrew at December 13, 2003 06:31 AM Burger flipping can't be outsourced. Unless we are willing to eat cold burgers. Posted by: greg at January 27, 2004 01:34 PM |
