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February 07, 2007

The Tipping Point?

Successful insurgencies eventually move away from terrorism to full participation on the battlefield. Are we beginning to see that in Iraq?

Maintaining an insurgency is child's play. If you can detonate a car bomb a day somewhere in Iraq, the insurgency goes on, and that requires only 365 bombs. Even a relatively small group can maintain the illusion of general discontent without a great deal of effort, particularly given the amount of ordnance floating around Iraq. But while those actions can disrupt the country's stability, they are insufficient to actually turn the country in the insurgency's favor.

So, sooner or later, insurgencies turn to conventional military action or they fail. In recent weeks, the military has lost five helicopters, all apparently to enemy action. The last four months have been the deadliest period yet in Iraq for American troops. Last week the U.S. and Iraqi governments claimed to win a battle in which approximately 300 insurgents were killed, a claim which, if true, indicates the insurgency moving towards larger formations which are better suited to direct confrontation with government troops than insurgency. Put that all together and it's hard not to wonder if the situation on the ground in Iraq isn't a lot worse than we might think.

I don't know what the facts in Iraq are. It's possible the casualties and helicopters are just cyclical and the '300 militants' was a major exaggeration intended to buff the credentials of the Iraqi Army. But it is also possible we are seeing a turning point in the fight for Iraq as both the U.S. and some members of the insurgency move to try and tip the balance in their favor. The events of the next few weeks should be watched very closely, as they may indicate the ultimate fate of Iraq and our battle there.