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November 07, 2006

Election Day

Well, it's finally here, and let's all be grateful for that, since that means no more annoying ads about how horrible all the candidates are. The worst part is, the ads are probably right.

I'll be voting this evening on my way home from work. I have no Senatorial elections this year, but the race for the House might just surprise everyone in my district (CO-5), as Jay Fawcett matches up well with Doug Lamborn, thanks in large part to Lamborn managing to annoy a lot of Republicans in a heavily conservative district. I won't hold my breath, but I'll vote for Fawcett anyhow and hope for the best.

As for the larger contest, I think it's going to turn out to be a disappointment. Whether it's a flaw in polling methodology, Republican advantages in GOTV, or the dastardly Diebold effect, I think that the Republicans will have a better showing than expected. That means the Senate will stay Republican, although I'm guessing it will move to 52-48. The House is a tougher question. I think the Democrats will flip it, but just barely: 219-216, which will mean tough sledding ahead for Democrats and Republicans alike. The Democrats will have to see whether or not they can keep their caucus together to push bills through the House, a challenging prospect since many of the newly elected Democrats will be relatively conservative. That may be for the best, however, since that should mean that any bills that make it through such a narrowly divided chamber won't be too offensive. On the other hand, it may also mean that they're larded with pork to get enough support to move.

Whatever your politics, if you haven't already done so, make sure you go out and vote today. Sure, the odds of your vote being the deciding factor are low, but why take a chance? I'll follow the returns here this evening, and we'll see if my predictions are uncannily prescient, or unbelievably bad.