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February 25, 2006

Testing Point

The rising tensions between Shiite and Sunni in Iraq following the destruction of the Askariya shrine in Samarra mark a potential turning point in the war. Al Qaeda has obviously finally found a way to push Iraq's Shiite majority hard enough to provoke reprisals against Sunnis, perhaps setting off the long-feared Iraqi civil war. What happens over the next few days will offer several tests for the new Iraq, and will perhaps settle some of the important questions regarding the feasibility of the Bush doctrine.

William F. Buckley has already determined that we have failed in Iraq. It is his opinion that Iraq simply cannot handle representative democracy, an opinion that is hardly unique. And he may be correct; as has been shown in the Balkans and in the complaints of Osama bin Laden, ancient grievances can linger for amazing lengths of time. It's possible that will be the case in Iraq as well. What happens over the next few days will be a significant indicator of that. Iraq would still exist in the wake of a war between the Shia and the Sunnis, but it would hardly be the same in the wake of such slaughter.

The other vital question is whether or not Iraq's government can handle this kind of disruption. For any government to be considered legitimate, it has to be able to maintain the peace in the face of major disruptions. Potential civil war is an extreme case, but Iraq's government will also have to deal with an insurgency for the foreseeable future, so this particular problem is not as extreme for Iraq as it would be in the United States. It therefore serves as a valuable gauge of our progress in Iraq. If the Iraqi government can deal with the situation, perhaps Iraq is not quite in as bad shape as many people fear. Conversely, if U.S. forces have to get heavily involved in putting down the problem, it may be time to reassess our position in Iraq and determine if our current course of action is likely to bear fruit at all.