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February 14, 2005

Avoiding Temptation

I see that the Post is breathlessly declaring that the Shiites, big winners in Iraq's election, are in bed with Iran. I don't doubt that the Bush administration would have been happier had less religious parties done better in last month's election, but this is a very good time for everyone on both sides of the debate to take a deep breath and remember that self-determination was the goal for Iraq, not creating a U.S. puppet state.

With North Korea's declaration that it possesses nuclear weapons and the increasing probability that Iran will begin producing them soon as well, nonproliferation is moving towards the status of a dead letter. However much we might like to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle, the stopper is simply too lose for that plan to hold much longer. There is very little we can do to address the question of North Korea, but a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad might be more trouble for Iran than a secular one.

Iran's people are already largely fed up with their mullacracy. Living in accordance with your religious beliefs sounds great to many people of faith, until they realize that no two people interpret their religion quite the same way. In Iran, this has been cruelly demonstrated for two decades, revealing Islamic theocracy as little more than dictatorship with a few prayers at the top. Now they will not only have to live with that issue, but their neighbor is going to show them another way to mix religion and politics.

While the Shiites did take 48% of the vote, they're still going to need support from other groups in order to run the government, and there will be another election in eleven months to set the final government in place. We can rest assured that while the Shiites will press to get as much support for their beliefs as they can in the new constitution, the Kurds and Sunnis will be require a number of protections or they simply won't approve the new system. Iraq may have some theocracy in its future, but it will be a very different blend from that we've seen in Iran.

This assumes that the Bush administration is wise enough to keep its hands off Iraq, however. Nationalism remains a driving force for some fraction of the insurgency. If the United States doesn't back off and allow the new government to be a true government, it will fan the flames of a true nationalist insurgency. If we step back, however, it may take the wind out of the sails of a number of insurgents; why risk your life to kill Americans if it becomes obvious the Americans are listening to an elected Iraqi government? This may mean we have to swallow our pride or our better judgement when the new government acts in ways we consider foolish or unwise. But this restraint will pay greater dividends than trying to force the new government down what we consider the one best way and forgetting that sometimes we all have to learn by falling on our face a few times.

Our presence in Iraq may not end for some time to come, depending on the desires of the Iraqi government. But our control of Iraqi affairs needs to end now, if we're to succeed in establishing true self-rule in Iraq.