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October 27, 2004
The Wrong Candidate in the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time
Blackfive points to the latest Democratic election scheme: using American troops to paint the Iraq mission as a failure.
Many will claim that they support the troops, they just don't support the mission. I don't doubt their sincerity. I don't think there are many Democrats (there are a few on the fringe, but the Republicans certainly have them as well) who are actually rooting for combat deaths in Iraq. I'm confident that the majority of the antiwar Democrats would like to see our troops pulled out without another loss. Indeed, for many of them, pulling our troops out is the best way they can see to protect them.
Sadly, that opposition, as honest and as straightforward as much of it is, is still undermining our troops. Our enemy is not comprised of fools, although many of his frontline troops are just that. Men like al-Zarqawi and al-Zawahiri keep a careful watch on American public opinion. They are well-acquainted with our history. They know that, on the brink of victory in Vietnam (see General Giap's memoir regarding the immediate aftermath of the Tet Offensive), we faltered and handed the win to the enemy. They hope to see the same thing in Iraq. If they can convince the American public to pull out of Iraq, they know they've won. And they know that the key to that victory is helping the antiwar cause in America.
Let's be very clear here: the antiwar forces in America are not acting on the behest of our enemies. They are not coordinated, and their goals are very different. The antiwar element in America is standing up against the war because they believe that it's wrong, and many of them are enduring a great deal of vituperation and scorn because they're standing up for their beliefs. I strongly disagree with those beliefs, but I believe we should respect them even as we try to convince others that they're wrong. The confluence of aims between the antiwar movement in America and the terrorists in Iraq is a coincidence, nothing more. To suggest that they're somehow allied is beneath contempt.
Having said that, I think it's just as important to note that every success for the antiwar crowd is going to lead, at least in the short run, to additional American deaths. (I suspect most of them realize this, but believe that the long-term benefits will outweigh the short-term losses. I disagree, but I can't prove that they're incorrect.) When it appears the U.S. is close to losing its resolve in Iraq, that is a huge recruiting tool for our enemies. They can argue that they outlasted the Soviets in Afghanistan and the U.S. in Somalia, therefore they can outlast the U.S. in Iraq as well. And that is true, if we let them.
In the long run, Iraq will only be secure when an independent Iraqi government, with its own army and police forces, is running the show. There may still be a limited number of American troops on the ground (although I believe it would be in our best interests to draw down to zero once the Iraqis have shown themselves capable of handling things on their own), but Iraqi security will ultimately come down to the Iraqis themselves. Our job is to help them reach that point.
I don't know how long that will take. I would like to believe that we could accomplish the task within five years, but that's a SWAG(Scientific Wild-Ass Guess). We may be able to do it faster than anticipated, or it might take us years longer than we'd hoped. In either case, Iraq needs our help and our resolve to reach that point. If we withdraw too quickly, the country will descend into chaos and we will have squandered all that we spent to reach that point. That's precisely what the enemy hopes to see.
Into that mix steps John Kerry, a man who collaborated with the enemy in Vietnam, who stood with the Communists during the Cold War, who voted against the first Gulf War even though it passed any imaginable conception of Kerry's 'global test.' His heart is clearly not in the fight in Iraq. He will almost certainly abandon ship as soon as the going gets tough (and that moment seems to be here already). Kerry will couch the withdrawal in the language of victory, but our enemy will see it for what it is: a surrender.
Over 1,000 of my brothers and sisters are dead due to the combat in Iraq. Thousands more are injured, many critically. One of my oldest friends is there now, and another will be joining her soon. I believe that we owe it to them to elect a commander in chief who can do more than belittle their service as sacrifices for the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Posted at October 27, 2004 09:52 AM

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Andrew,
Very good post. Accurate and precise. I wholeheartedly agree. If the left was this well reasoned, the war would be over.
Subsunk
Posted by: Subsunk at October 27, 2004 01:27 PM
Ouch,"if the left was this well reasoned, the war would be over." Please explain.
I would prefer a commander in chief who had a plan beyond you can't win the war if you think it was the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.
I have also had, and still have, friends in Iraq. A few of them were opposed to invading Iraq for various reasons. They did their duty and as far as I know, they did it well. Do we say that their hearts are not in the battle for Iraq?
I have a Republican friend(I also have a Republican relative, but I don't talk to him) who was in the army who just came back from a rotation to Honduras and wanted to stay in, but got out because he didn't support going into Iraq. Does his choice to get out show weakness of our military personnel's resolve.
I agree that any sign of weakness emboldens our enemies. So does every missile attack by Israel in Palestinian territories. So does every time we start a battle and then pull back like in Fallujah.
If every single person in America supported the President and the war, our enemies would use nationalism to rally support against us.
I was against this war for many reasons, but now instead of debating the right and wrong of it, we should destroy and kill those that are against us. As long as one insurgent or terrorist is alive to rally support against us, we will never be safe. Anything short of that should be unacceptable to all of us.
Posted by: Scott at October 27, 2004 02:07 PM
I don't follow how you reach the conclusion that:
"I think it's just as important to note that every success for the antiwar crowd is going to lead, at least in the short run, to additional American deaths."
I am also not sure I agree with:
"When it appears the U.S. is close to losing its resolve in Iraq, that is a huge recruiting tool for our enemies."
What little evidence there is indicates that war in Iraq has been an excellent terrorist recruitment tool. It is easy to for them to cliam the U.S. is an occupier so long as remain there.
Posted by: reydrek at October 28, 2004 03:21 PM
Andrew,
Commendably polite and understanding to your opponents, as always. That's probably the most courteous, respectful criticism of the antiwar movement I've heard in years, maybe ever - so, thanks, and kudos.
Having said that, it pains me to see you taking the "we must not criticize this war" line. I think I can sort of see your point - I'm not convinced you're right, but I'll concede you might be. But here's the thing: if a democracy goes to war, and the political leadership makes mistakes in the planning and conduct of that war, how are the people supposed to be able to make a change? If the opposition declines to offer a competing vision or a possible change in direction, then what options does the electorate have?
I'd really like to see you answer this question, actually - when, and to what extent, should the political opposition be free to criticize the conduct of an ongoing war? Maybe it'd be best to frame the discussion in terms of Bosnia or Kosovo, so we're not so weighed down with current political disputes and alignments. Or, just pick some [hypothetical] case in which the war really was, from your perspective, the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time, yet American troops were in the field in harm's way.
Posted by: The Navigator at October 29, 2004 11:43 AM
Scott,
Do we say that their hearts are not in the battle for Iraq?
I know that there are some soldiers whose hearts are not in the battle for Iraq, because I've trained them to go over there. And they do put their own lives at risk, not to mention those of their fellow soldiers, although I suspect they get much more interested in fighting the war when it becomes apparent they cannot avoid it. The President doesn't have to worry about that, and if his heart isn't in the fight, it affects a lot more than just his immediate unit.
Does his choice to get out show weakness of our military personnel's resolve.
I'd argue it shows a wise decision on his part. It can hardly be extrapolated to extend to the entire military, any more than my citation of soldiers who believe in the war can be.
I agree that any sign of weakness emboldens our enemies. So does every missile attack by Israel in Palestinian territories. So does every time we start a battle and then pull back like in Fallujah.
If every single person in America supported the President and the war, our enemies would use nationalism to rally support against us.
Incorrect. While there are some people who don't mind dying, the vast majority of the people we're fighting have no interest in dying in a losing cause. The enthusiasm of young Pakistanis to join the fight in Afghanistan waned markedly when it turned out they were dying droves. The same is true in Iraq: if we demonstrate that going to Iraq to fight against the Coalition is a one-way ticket to oblivion, the flow will decrease significantly. It won't dry up, because there are always some people who believe in the cause strongly enough not to care about the odds, but if we turn off the rest, killing the diehards becomes much easier.
reydrek,
Success by the antiwar cause encourages new attacks on American forces, because it demonstrates that such attacks work. Therefore, in the short run, the antiwar cause will cause more, not fewer American casualties.
The Navigator,
Where did I say that we must not criticize the war? I don't see it, but if I did say that, I was wrong. As I did say, if you honestly believe that withdrawal will result in fewer deaths in the long run, then protesting the war is the right thing to do. I do think that the antiwar folks ought to be honest and realize that their tactics will cause more harm in the short run, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't do it.
Furthermore, you can certainly criticize the war without calling for American withdrawal. There have been numerous examples of places where we could have (and should have) done better, and pointing those out is the right thing to do.
The bottom line for me is that I would not force the protestors to stop if I had the power, but I would like to convince them to stop. I trust you understand the difference.
Posted by: Andrew at October 29, 2004 02:51 PM
"if you honestly believe that withdrawal will result in fewer deaths in the long run, then protesting the war is the right thing to do. I do think that the antiwar folks ought to be honest and realize that their tactics will cause more harm in the short run, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't do it."
That's more or less the principle I wanted to defend. You weren't as explicit about this in the post as you are in your comment here, but looking back, I see how this was more or less what you meant.
I guess what really got me was that you then went on to say that Kerry would lead us to surrender - despite everything that Kerry's said in this campaign about fighting to win, doing it the right way, hunting down terrorists and killing them, working to get other nations involved, etc. I guess a more sympathetic read of your post would have been that you were saying, not that Kerry's criticisms of Bush's policies were necessarily themselves emboldening the enemy, leading to more recruits, and generally getting more Americans killed, with no larger benefit to show for it, but rather that you just don't trust Kerry, don't believe what he says, and are certain he'll take actions that will have the same effects as those of the antiwar protestors.
All I can say is that if we were to assume that presidential candidates will behave in office, not as they say they'll behave, but as our most negative view of their actions thirty years ago suggests they'll behave, then we'd have to assume that Bush would spend his time getting drunk and high, skipping out on his responsibilities and getting arrested for DWIs. He didn't do any of those things in his first term, though - instead, he did more or less what he said he'd do during the 2000 campaign (at least outside of foreign policy issues). Bush changed. Kerry can change, too.
Posted by: Anonymous at October 29, 2004 04:47 PM
Sorry, last comment was me.
Posted by: The Navigator at October 29, 2004 04:48 PM
I'm not basing my assessment (solely) on Kerry's actions from 30 years ago. What has he done in the intervening years that would suggest he has changed materially from the views he held then? His actions during the Cold War? His vote against the first Gulf War? Help me out here: what has Kerry actually done, as opposed to what he's said, that would indicate he's really willing to stand up for anything but himself?
Posted by: Andrew at October 29, 2004 06:31 PM
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