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March 20, 2003

First Thoughts

The most important thing to remember over the next few days is this: the first reports are almost always inaccurate. First reports are generally submitted in the heat of battle before any real analysis can take place. Therefore, they're highly subjective, based on limited information, and rarely hit the mark. So as the first reports of 'surgical strikes' on Iraqi forces come in, it's best to take those reports with a grain of salt. In all likelihood, some of the strikes will succeed, but far more will fail. Not because of incompetence, but because intelligence is never a sure thing. The attempt to kill Hussein last night is a perfect illustration of this: apparently, the CIA thought it knew where Hussein would be at a particular time, so George Tenet was able to convince the President to change the plan to take a shot at Hussein. It now appears that shot failed, although we won't know for certain for days, if not weeks or months. But many other attacks will be made under similar circumstances: we think there's something there, so we hit it. Sometimes the intel will be accurate, and we'll hit a key target. More often, the intel will have missed something, or there will be a technical failure, and the attack will either miss the target or hit something that wasn't actually a target.

Tonight will be very important. Will we launch the big strike tonight? Will ground troops start to move? The answers to both of these questions needs to be yes. Hussein has nothing left to lose. If he has any commanders willing to use chemical or biological weapons, they'll be most effective if used now against our troops while they're stationary. Once the attacks begin in earnest, many Iraqi launch sites will be eliminated, and the remaining sites will have more difficulty engaging our forces if they're sweeping across Iraq. If we don't start rolling tonight, I would consider that a significant tactical error that places our forces at unnecessary risk.

UPDATE (3/20/03): Steven Den Beste offers his thoughts on first reports.