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April 22, 2004

Misunderestimation

Richard Cohen is depressed, because John Kerry has fallen further behind in the polls even after some particularly bad times for President Bush. Cohen does note (correctly, I think) that Kerry needs to give people more of a reason to vote for him than that's he's not George Bush (hey, I'm not George Bush, either...feel free to write my name in). But it's far too early to start despairing over Kerry's chances.

Kerry obviously faces some tough hurdles to overcome if he wants to win in November. But there are plenty of land mines out there that President Bush could land on before November, particularly given the state of the economy and the current situation in Iraq. If Iraq stays messy, or if the economy doesn't start moving up more noticeably, I don't think it will matter very much what Kerry's message is; not being Bush will probably be enough. Conversely, if both of those improve markedly between now and November, I don't think it matters what Kerry does, he'll still lose.

So does Kerry matter at all? Certainly, but only in a close election. Al Gore's performance in his debates with Bush were probably the difference in that race, for example. It is therefore very important for Kerry to start building a strong message that tells people why they should vote for him, as opposed to against President Bush. If the country truly is as divided as people seem to believe, that could make all the difference. But Kerry has time to do that, as long as he can keep President Bush's campaign from defining him in the interim. Most Americans aren't really going to start paying attention to the election until September or later. As long as Kerry's message is established by then, (and assuming things aren't looking so good for the country that Bush is a lock), I don't think his campaign or his cheerleaders in the media should get overly worried.