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April 10, 2004

Bad News in Fallujah?

I could easily be wrong, but it seems to me that if the U.S. is really pushing this hard for a ceasefire in Fallujah, then maybe things haven't gone nearly as well there as we would have liked.

The purpose of this operations should have been to reestablish the Coalition's authority and its ability to enforce that authority, as well as eliminating a number of the hotheads responsible for the murder and desecration of American citizens last week. Now we've been asking for a ceasefire for several days. The strong side doesn't need to ask for a ceasefire; the longer fighting continues, the better things will go for the stronger party. Therefore, the American press for a ceasefire in Fallujah suggests to me that the operation isn't going well.

I'm not yet as pessimistic as Jim Henley, who believes that this uprising marks the beginning of the end for our occupation in Iraq, but the reports I've seen over the past few days are starting to make me wonder. We're looking at sending units just back from Iraq into the fighting again in a matter of months. The Marine operation in Fallujah appears to be foundering. And our campaign to win hearts and minds is faltering in conjunction with our inability to suppress Falluajah and al-Sadr. The Coalition needs to reassess the situation on the ground, bring in the troops it needs to restore order, and wipe out these troublemakers fast. The longer this situation plays out, the more damage our image will sustain among Iraqis, and the harder it will be for us to turn over the country to its rightful owners. These are the critical days, I think.

Or perhaps I'm just feeling overly pessimistic.

Posted at April 10, 2004 09:07 AM

Andrew Olmsted

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Comments

Don't know if this is playing any part in the thinking, but the military brass might have decided that Easter fighting between a "Christian" Army and a soft coalition of Shia - Sunni Muslims wouldn't be helpful. Also, they might be giving Sistani time to reassert himself more forcefully.

Really haven't thought either of these through -- no coffee yet -- but there you go. Just tossing it out there.

Posted by: Jeff G at April 10, 2004 09:49 AM

Quite possible. Don't forget, too, the masses of Shia who are on pilgrimage this weekend in Iraq.

Best to let that diffuse and take the time both to rearm and to let Iraqi governing council members attempt negotiations. None of this is a military issue - we could end this quickly if we were willing to cause a lot of damage and civilian injuries / deaths. The trick is to defend what the attackers are trying to destroy, namely the basis for a stable, secular government with a functioning economy. That will be a lot harder.

Posted by: Robin Burk at April 10, 2004 10:53 AM

Wow, now THAT is a link color. :)

Posted by: Sekimori at April 10, 2004 11:20 AM

Jeff & Robin,

Good points, and you're probably correct. I confess I'm just a little antsy when I see this going on day after day, because I'm not sure what that does to how the Iraqis see us. As I said the other day, though, I think we'll really just have to wait and see what happens. And, to quote Inigo Montoya, "I hate waiting."

Stacy,

Yeah, we're still experimenting here. :)

Posted by: Andrew at April 10, 2004 11:47 AM

I must confess that Fallujah has me more worried than al-Sadr for the moment. I can see that we are waiting until after the pilgrammage to go after Sadr. Fallujah is more worrying, but it is still early to speculate. Everything I have read says it is going well in Fallujah, so it is possible that we have another reason for asking for ceasefires. But who the heck knows?

Posted by: Enrak at April 10, 2004 12:48 PM

"Everything I have read says it is going well in Fallujah, so it is possible that we have another reason for asking for ceasefires."

I'd pay more attention to the reports of things going on than to the statements of press officers, Enrak.

And if everything were "going well" we'd have made more progress with fewer casualties, downed copters, and the like. This doesn't sound so great to me.

Nor does this:

"Any pause in the battle on our part gives a chance for them to refit themselves and come back a little harder," said Sgt. Daryl Hill, 38, whose company has spent four days and nights positioned along the front line between a deserted industrial area where the Marines are based and a residential district from which snipers shoot at them.

Hill said his company, which lost a popular lieutenant and staff sergeant to enemy fire in the same incident Thursday, had since gotten help from night gunship raids. "The gunships relieved some of the stress on us, but now it's time to get moving," he said. "They took some comrades from us, but we can't sit back and grieve over our loss. It's payback time." Maybe it was just bad luck to lose the lieutenant and sergeant in the same incident, but there seems to be an awful lot of bad luck going around.

They felt the need to bring in another entire battalion. They're massing tanks 20 strong; they're talking carrier strikes, along with more AC-130s; that's not light and easy fighting, or "everything going well," it seems to me.

Posted by: Gary Farber at April 11, 2004 09:57 AM

Should have previewed; sorry. That paragraph should be formatted so:

Hill said his company, which lost a popular lieutenant and staff sergeant to enemy fire in the same incident Thursday, had since gotten help from night gunship raids. "The gunships relieved some of the stress on us, but now it's time to get moving," he said. "They took some comrades from us, but we can't sit back and grieve over our loss. It's payback time."
Maybe it was just bad luck to lose the lieutenant and sergeant in the same incident, but there seems to be an awful lot of bad luck going around.

Posted by: Gary Farber at April 11, 2004 09:58 AM

Well, as I said, everything I had read at the time I posted said that things were going well. There is not a whole lot of information available, and I did not find the information that you posted here.

It looks like Andy's original post is closer to the mark than I thought.

I saw on the cover of the Boston Globe this morning a burning M1A1 (at least I think that's what it was) in Fallujah. That is a bad sign. Hard to kill an M1A1 with an RPG.

Posted by: Enrak at April 11, 2004 10:44 AM

That was an M1. I can't tell from the angle if it's an A1 or an A2. Hopefully an A1--they're cheaper. But it will be interesting to see how the Army rebuilds after this, since we haven't built an M1 in 5-10 years, if memory serves.

Posted by: Andrew at April 11, 2004 01:32 PM

Definitely not going well. :-(

Posted by: Gary Farber at April 11, 2004 02:01 PM

While this kinds of diaries are very valuable, I'm not sure you can really use one of them to extrapolate to an assessment of the campaign as a whole. The odds are pretty good that the writer is in no position to comment on whether her experiences are typical or unusual.

Posted by: Andrew at April 11, 2004 02:08 PM