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March 16, 2004

Spain and the War

With the voters of Spain having decided to oust Prime Minister Aznar’s Popular Party in favor of the socialists in response to last week’s train bombing in Madrid, there appear to be two separate trains of thought running through the blogosphere. On the pro-war side, we are told that the terrorists have won in Spain and that this will doubtless lead to future terrorist attacks. On the anti-war side, we have a great deal of schadenfreude at the sight of a Bush ally going down to defeat in Spain, and hopes that this will teach us arrogant Americans a lesson about unilateralism. I’m simplifying hideously here, not to caricature anyone, but just because these seem to be the dominant themes; there are certainly many other flavors out there to be sampled.

Including my own, as I’d like to take a look at the Spanish actions following the attack and see what conclusions may be reached. Is this election really a victory for the terrorists? If so, I don’t see it as a particularly large one, to be honest.

Spain was never a big partner in the war in Iraq to begin with. That is not intended to denigrate the support they have provided; Spain was a valuable ally in the wars with Afghanistan and Iraq, and they deserve our thanks for the work they did. But by that same token, the coalition is hardly going to collapse without the Spanish. Replacing their 1,300 troops will be a nuisance, but nothing more. As for the politics, we were considered to have an illegitimate coalition when Spain was a part of it. It can’t be any less legitimate without Spain than with it, so it doesn’t seem to be a big issue.

That leaves out the question of the larger war on Islamofascism, but I don’t think Spain is likely to withdraw from that any time soon. The Spanish aren’t stupid: they’re on the front lines of this war, thanks to their historical connection to Islam and their proximity to Morocco. Even if their new government renounces all ties to the United States, the only thing that will keep more terrorists at bay would be the restoration of the Caliphate. That seems an unlikely outcome. It seems far more plausible to me that the Spanish will continue to work to eliminate the threat of terrorist attacks, even if focusing primarily on Spain. Again, this seems like no great loss to the war effort.

Terrorists have learned that they can affect democratic outcomes through the use of well-timed terrorism, which probably makes it more likely we will see future such attacks on the eve of elections. But this is a risky tool to put in play. In Spain, the bombings secured a result that is nominally favorable to the terrorists. That is no guarantee such attacks would gain similar results elsewhere. Here in the United States, it’s quite possible such an attack could turn a close race into a big victory for President Bush, giving him added legitimacy and making him even more likely to use greater measures to hunt down terrorists. Even if such an attack threw the election to Kerry, it seems very unlikely Kerry is so foolish as to believe that the terrorists would stop coming after America in the wake of his election. Kerry would doubtless feel much the same pressure as Bush to go after the terrorists with renewed strength in order to prevent future such attacks. The knowledge they can affect elections is unlikely to do terrorists much good, because they have no way of knowing if it will tip the elections in their favor or against them. Remember that Islamic terrorists have little to no practical experience with democracy: they are quite likely to err in predicting our responses to whatever they do.

Is it unfortunate that Spain has chosen to turn away from the United States in the wake of this attack? Absolutely. In that sense, perhaps it is a minor victory for the terrorists. But based on what I’ve discussed above, I don’t see it as nearly as devastating a blow as some are now claiming.

On a related note, I think it is quite shameful on the part of the many pro-war bloggers I’ve seen condemning the Spanish for capitulating to terrorism. The fact is that the Socialists were primed to lose by only a small margin prior to the bombing. It was only a small fraction of the Spanish who interpreted the bombings as a result of their alliance with the United States. While I certainly condemn those Spanish voters who came to that conclusion, it is wrong to tar the entire country with that brush. Remember that while 90% of the voters opposed the war in Iraq, better than 40% of them still ended up casting their vote for the party that would have kept them involved with the war. Yes, the result of the election was unfortunate, and a percentage of Spanish voters are quite worthy of contempt, but that is a far cry from condemning the entire nation. Spain was a valuable ally in a difficult time for us. She probably will be again. I see no logic or justice in attacking her now simply because a small minority of fools happened to make the difference in this election.

Update: Chris at the Noble Pundit has a good piece making many of the same points, only better.