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December 10, 2003

Samarra Aftermath

A fortnight after the battle of Samarra, U.S. forces have apparently all but ceded control of the town to the local authorities. While this is interesting (and probably bad) news in itself, it suggests that the Army certainly seems to believe its version of the battle.

That shouldn't come as a surprise necessarily, but it has been impossible not to wonder whether the brass wasn't holding onto its original account simply out of fear of appearing wrong. If they knew their version of events was a fantasy, they would not have reduced the U.S. presence in the town to one heavily fortified installation. It doesn't necessarily follow that the 54 deaths number is accurate, but it does imply the number of fighters in Samarra was far higher than the number claimed by the Fedayeen. The big question that remains is how many of the combatants were Fedayeen or other declared insurgents, and how many were citizens who joined the battle once it had commenced?

John Moore of Useful Fools has posited an interesting theory (scroll down to the comments): that Samaria may have devolved into a Mogadishu-style fight, with civilians and others rushing into the fight after the initial engagement. If that is a more accurate portrayal of the fight (and it does fit with some reports of the battle), we could be facing a far worse problem than remnants of the old regime. As long as the resistance we're facing in Iraq consists of Hussein holdouts and foreigners looking to kill Americans, we don't have much to worry about. They can attrit our forces, but they don't have the strength to force us out. Over time, as self-rule takes hold, the Iraqis themselves will be able to deal with them. What can stop us is a truly popular resistance to the occupation. If the majority of Iraqis, or even just a sizable fraction, decide they want us gone, they can make the occupation painful enough that we'll almost certainly decide it's not worth the cost. As has been said before, this is a fight for hearts and minds. If we lose that battle, it won't really matter how we do in individual engagements.

Jim Henley looks at the situation and points out that Samarra can also serve as a laboratory of sorts. If the town remains peaceful after U.S. forces pull out, it may be a good indicator that Iraq is more ready for independence and self-rule than many might have believed. The converse to this is that it could also serve as a safe haven for Fedayeen and other anti-U.S. forces, but careful surveillance of the town and routes in and out could alleviate that threat.

Leaving the town would not only protect our forces, it might also help to defuse the anti-American sentiment in the town. Regardless of how benign our occupation of Iraq is, it is still an occupation. It should surprise no one that Iraqis will come to resent it to varying degrees. By reducing the visible signs of the occupation, we may be able to reduce the nationalist tendencies of many Iraqis. Samarra may serve as a great opportunity to test some of these theories.

Hat tip: Amygdala.