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December 06, 2003

Pushing the Envelope

With an Army official now reporting that four divisions will be at reduced readiness postures for roughly six months after they return from Iraq, expect the pressure for raising new Army troops to gain a big boost. But Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld has fought all such proposals very hard prior to this, so it's likely he will argue that new troops won't be needed because we'll be drawing down in Iraq.

It is certainly true that these troops, while not as ready as we would prefer, are still available for emergencies. I'm not so sure this is a wise way to run things, however. I have talked about the risks of overuse for both the Active and Reserve components before. It still seems quite likely to me that we will face some retention problems with units that were deployed, especially high OPTEMPO units like 3d Infantry Division and 10th Mountain Division. That would mean that while we could put together a force to meet a contingency mission, it would likely be a scratch force that was not used to working together, and would therefore be far less effective.

There is no question that units will face significant equipment readiness issues as well. My former unit, 1-68 Armor, has the oldest tanks in the Active inventory. They have doubtless had many problems keeping them running in Iraq, and those issues will have to be addressed when they return home. It will also be interesting to see how the uparmored HMMWV issue is addressed. Because they are the most commonly used vehicle in Iraq, they have had by far the highest attrition rates. The Army doesn't have as many as it needs. It has even contemplated taking HMMWVs from Stateside units and shipping them to Iraq to alleviate the shortage. Will redeploying units bring their hmmm, home and exacebate the shortage, or leave them there and face the problem of replacing them when they get home? In either case, the Army is going to have to deal with these equipment issues to bring units back to full readiness.

Can the Army do this? Yes, in time. But time is a luxury our enemies may not offer us. These units would certainly be available in an emergency, but they would be less effective. That translates to higher casualties and a better chance that the enemy could accomplish his goals. That seems an unwise risk.

It would take a minimum of several years to spin up new divisions to augment the current force. Some will probably argue that, since we'll face this risk anyhow, there is no point in spending the large amounts of money required for new units. But this war is surely not the last one we will ever fight. New divisions might not help us in Iraq, but they could help us avoid facing similar problems at some point in the future. Most importantly, it would give us greater flexibility in the use of our armed forces. This is a valuable prize, even if we never have to use it.