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December 04, 2003

More on Samarra

As promised, if a little late, I've taken another look at Sunday's clash in Samarra between the 4ID and some combination of Fedayeen and local civilians. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find many more facts in the case, so what we know is still a hodgepodge of what the Army says, what the locals say, and the minimal physical evidence seen thus far.

• It's clear that there was a significant fight in Samarra, although the precise numbers involved are not clear.
  
• The description of the convoy implies that it was deemed extremely important; we don't use a tank platoon as convoy escorts unless the cargo is of great value.
  
• If the Fedayeen were present in as great a number as was reported (and I see little reason to doubt this), then we have a significant intelligence issue. While I suppose it could be possible there simply were that many Fedayeen already in Samarra (which would point to another problem)
  
• Either the commanders did a very poor job of assessing the spot reports following the fight (possibly because they were looking for some positive press), or the Fedayeen did a great job of retrieving their bodies following the fight. My money is on the former, as the Fedayeen don't strike me as a disciplined enough force to clear the battlefield that efficiently.
  
• A number of civilians joined the battle once it was begun, and some bystanders were killed in the fighting as well.
  
• Both sides report roughly 70-85 casualties. The difference lies in deaths versus wounded. Therefore, I'd guess the casualties are about right; the question remains how many were killed. I would guess that the deaths were closer to the Iraqi estimate than the Army estimate. The question remains, however, did higher-ups inflate the numbers (or accept the initial reports at face value) in order to score a propaganda coup, was it an honest mistake, or did they somehow manage to kill that many but lose the bodies?
  
• Based on accounts of the battle, it seems more likely the deaths were in the 10-20 range.
  
• However, the Pentagon's insistence on the 54 kills raises questions for me. It seems almost impossible that the officers there haven't figured out how dubious their claims now look. So why are they insisting on the 54? I don't know, but I think there's still a lot of information about Samarra yet to be discovered.
  
• Samarra is clearly a hotbed of support for the former regime, and we can expect to see further problems there for the foreseeable future.
  
• The fight in Samarra enraged the local populace; however, it's difficult to tell how much of this was due to preexisting issues with the occupation and how much came out of the collateral damage from the fighting. The larger issue is how the fight will affect Iraqi attitudes outside Samarra.
  

Sorry it took so long. In the interim, continue to swing by Unqualified Offerings and Amygdala for all your Samarra news.

Update: It seems the questions are getting to some officers. I find the statement of LTC Krivo odd, however. I don't think anyone with even a remote familiarity with the military would believe that the soldiers on the scene lied. If there is any misrepresentation of the numbers going on, it's happening at higher echelons than squad leaders or company commanders.