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August 10, 2003
The 2003 Home Stretch With roughly seven weeks left in the baseball season, it's time to look at the races and see who's likely to be playing this October. As always, the season thus far has included some big surprises and some non-surprises. And with baseball's foolishly expanded playoffs, there's a good bet the eventual winner of the World Series will be a surprise as well. In the regular season, however, quality tends to win out. Which is good news for perennial favorites, New York. The Red Sox have done reasonably well to hang in with the Yankees over the course of the season, but the Yankees far superior pitching will be the difference in the AL East this year. New York should win the East by five to ten games. In the Central, Kansas City's work to date has been nothing short of miraculous, and it would all have gone for naught in a better division. In the weak AL Central, though, KC still holds a half-game lead over Chicago. But this Cinderella story is about tick midnight. Chicago will be the AL Central representative this year. In the AL West, Seattle looks like a lock. Billy Beane's As have been the best team in baseball in the second half for the past few years, but they don't have the horses to catch Seattle this year. Look for them to overtake my Red Sox for the Wild Card. The Sox hitting is absolutely awesome, but unless Pedro and Derek Lowe return to last year's form, they'll finish behind Oakland. In the National League, things are more interesting. The Braves look unbeatable, but a closer look indicates there's as much luck as skill in their 12.5 game lead in the NL East. The Braves are playing seven games better than their runs scored to runs allowed ratio would indicate, while the Phillies are five games worse than they should be. Look for that gap to close over the next seven weeks. The Phillies won't make up the full twelve games, but they will be good enough to reach the playoffs for the first time since their World Series year of 1993. In the NL Central, Houston looks like the team to beat. While they only hold a 2.5 game lead right now, look for Jimy Williams to keep them just enough ahead of St. Louis to get them to the playoffs. A late run by the Cardinals can't be ruled out, though, as they've had dismal luck this season (8-19 in one-run games), and that could well turn around some as they hit the home stretch. In the NL West, San Francisco is easily the class of its division. They're playing over their heads right now, but Arizona is too old and Los Angeles is short too much talent for either of them to overtake the Giants. It will be nice to see Felipe Alou finally reach the playoffs. Check back in seven weeks to see my mea culpas. And if you're a betting man, don't blame me if you lose money. Posted at 06:58 PM | Baseball Comments
Oh no, I want one now. Not a single mention of the Twins. I am sorely disappointed. Just because they've managed to self-destruct and end up almost out of contention for a play-off spot is not a sufficent reason to completely ignore them. Hummpphhffff! Pedro seemed to do pretty good in that complete game last week... have to agree with you on Derek Lowe, however, and Suppan isn't anywhere near as hot as billed. I agree, pitching will decide the AL East... We're on course to lose the AL East, but I think it will be less than five games. I'm not sure that the Sox slugging won't overcome Oakland. The next two weeks (Mariners and A's without mercy) will tell. Posted by: Catfish and Cod at August 11, 2003 06:37 AMOh, boy--with the Yanks and Mariners only 3 games ahead of the BoSox and A's respectively, you're taking a big stand here... Posted by: Dar at August 11, 2003 08:33 AMNo guts, no glory. I think I'm taking a bigger risk with the As, because they've done so well over the second half the last two years, but we'll see. Don't get me wrong; if I had my druthers, I'd see the Red Sox pitching pull it together and not only take the division, but walk off with the best record in the AL and home field advantage. But their pitching just isn't getting it done, and hitting alone can only take you so far. Posted by: Andrew at August 11, 2003 09:10 AMEven if the Bosox make the playoffs I don't see them winning a series. If they had Pedro from 99-00 they could, but Pedro ain't Pedro anymore. The rest of the staff isn't playoff capable.(/cliche) That said, if you look at the Red Sox line-up and with a couple of moves in the off-season... Just wait 'til next year! Posted by: Enrak at August 12, 2003 11:01 AMAnything is possible in a short series; if the Sox bats got hot at the right time, they could easily take the Series, but I wouldn't bet on it. Posted by: Andrew Olmsted at August 12, 2003 12:17 PMHey Andrew, the Red Sox are back to 3 1/2 within the Yankees, and as I write this, we're on track to being 1 1/2 games ahead in the wild card race (Seattle is losing to the --Devil Rays--). Still think we'll finish more than five games back? To Enrak: Pedro rocks even when he can't throw a fastball, even when he's practically fresh off his sickbed. Pedro is really, really amazing; I know of no other pitcher that can still make miracles without his signature pitch. Our pitching could still use work (I think poorly of Sauerbeck and Williamson). Nonetheless, we're doing pretty good. Offense isn't everything, but a dominant offense really helps. Posted by: Catfish N. Cod at August 29, 2003 08:35 PMCat, I'd love it if the Sox made the playoffs, of course, and even more so if they could do so as AL East champions. (Especially since, with their road record, they really have to have home field advantage if they're to be successful.) But 3 1/2 games is a long ways to come back in a month. They really have to take at least four of six from the Yankees to have a shot at it, although tonight was a great start. Whether we'll finish five games back or not is harder to say now. The Yankees have done worse than expected (yay), but I don't know if I'm ready to count on them doing so into September. As for Seattle, their collapse has completely shocked me. They've got more talent than they've shown to date, but if they don't right the ship soon, they're going to make me look bad. Posted by: Andrew at August 29, 2003 08:52 PMPost a comment
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